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Defaulting to dollars in volatile times denies the euro market the resilience it needs
Asset class could be protected by rising demand
Enslaved by interest rate volatility, we are all rates traders now
A corner of the UK market has provided one of the few pain trades so far since war broke out in the Middle East
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The market for SSA issuers could not look much better. A wobble in peripheral markets this week has not been enough to derail positive sentiment but only a few issuers took advantage, despite the approaching Easter break. The rest will hope they do not regret this lack of activity later on in the year.
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The EFSF and Nederlandse Waterschapsbank (NWB) slapped down markers this week that showed how far the SSA market has come in three months. But only a fool would close the case file on the European sovereign crisis.
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Bankers have prayed for years for the adolescent and fickle European high yield bond market to mature and achieve permanence. The hike in the amount of capital banks are required to hold — and plans for increased regulation in the so-called shadow banking sector — mean it might now become a reality.
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As EuroWeek went to press on Thursday night, it looked like Greece would be able to restructure the 90% (or perhaps even 95%, according to one Athens insider) of the €206bn of its bonds that are involved in the Private Sector Initiative that it needs to trigger the rest of its bail-out money.
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As the dust settles, where do we stand after the European Central Bank’s second — and perhaps last — Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO)? According to the wealth of opinions, informed or otherwise, that have been circulating, we’re heading either for the bliss of an eternal rally or walking blindly into the fires of hell. It’s anyone’s guess, it would appear.
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The rally in European banks’ tier one paper has become a self fulfilling prophecy. Since the first wave of hybrid buybacks began in the fourth quarter, investors have inched up the price of securities in anticipation of more cash tenders to come.