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With equity returns under strain, managers would do well to slow the pace of CLO issuance
Issuance has kept going by giving investors just what they want
John Healey resigned because the money was not there for defence. It may not be there for anything
Bifurcation is emerging in how investors treat the hyperscalers
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Depression hit the debt capital markets in no small way last year as the final volume tallies show. Moods have been lifted by a sprightly first week of January but trouble could lie just around the corner, starting with a scary couple of weeks as the fourth quarter bank results season begins.
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It was on Christmas Eve that China chose to launch what appeared to be a simple new trade scheme to start using renminbi, rather than US dollars or euros, in deals with eight neighbouring economies. Worries about both dollar volatility for exporters and the impact of a dollar slump on the country’s $2tr foreign currency holdings presumably led to the announcement being pitched softly over Christmas for fear of what it might do to the US currency.
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The debate over whether Deutsche Bank should have called its lower tier two bond at the first opportunity is refusing to die down with more fuel added to the fire this week when HBOS announced that it would call an upcoming deal of its own. Investors are still in inflammatory mood but tempers could be cooled if only bank regulators would stand up and publicly support issuers.
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The quartet of emerging markets sovereign bonds that priced in the first week of the year clearly showed how much cash investors have to put to work. Just as clearly, they show the importance of clever marketing and execution.
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The popular narrative of the credit crunch has it thus: bankers have destroyed livelihoods with reckless under-regulated casino capitalism based on fiat money which didn’t really exist. Already sounds like orthodoxy? Certainly, it is unquestioningly embedded into mainstream news and comment. It may also be partly true but it is also full of dangerous presumptions — the banking industry needs to do more than mumble the odd apology, it needs to tackle some pernicious cankers of ideas and communicate its case.
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The UK and other governments have been haranguing banks for not pouring their bail-out funds back into the economy. But for the banks concerned it would be reckless to do so. It’s time for governments to put up or shut up.