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Turbulent market conditions of the Middle East war have pushed bond issuers and investors to try new things
A swift response is tempting, but lenders should avoid kneejerk reaction
Talk of de-dollarisation has evaporated. The dollar market remains the undisputed king of financing
Inflation caused by war threatens budding recovery in commercial real estate
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Somewhere on this blue earth, there is probably a tear-stained drawing of Ben Bernanke in billowing red cape and blue spandex suit with the acronym ‘QE’ emblazoned on his powerful chest.
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When UBS exited the supranational and agency bond business in 2012 there were justifiable concerns that more and more dealers, straining under the cost of supporting this most important part of the capital markets, would follow suit. But the sector has changed — and even those dealers that left clients in the lurch should not be afraid to rebuild old relationships. They may even find themselves welcomed back with open arms.
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In the four years since it was set up, the Asian Development Bank’s Credit Guarantee & Investment Facility (CGIF) has only brought four issuers to sell bonds. While some may view this level of activity as a failure, if you look beyond the numbers it’s clear CGIF wants to make a long term impact rather than a short term buzz. -
Bonds of Brazilian corporates affected by the Petrobras corruption scandal have flunked in the last week. But prices jumping about at such speed tells us less about the credits in question than about a broader market malaise.
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On the surface, it's been a torrid past few weeks in the CEEMEA primary markets. A string of names postponed bonds, and one printed at a yield a whopping 150bp wide of initial price thoughts. But these events don't indicate a foundering market — rather they are a sign of investors taking realistic decisions about what they want to invest in and at what price.
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Whether because of delays or last-minute decisions, naysayers of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect have had a field day berating it as little more than a half-hearted exercise. But such an ambitious task was never going to be without its problems. More credit should be given to what’s already been achieved.
