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Turbulent market conditions of the Middle East war have pushed bond issuers and investors to try new things
A swift response is tempting, but lenders should avoid kneejerk reaction
Talk of de-dollarisation has evaporated. The dollar market remains the undisputed king of financing
Inflation caused by war threatens budding recovery in commercial real estate
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African MTNs may be on the verge of a boom. International banks are receiving an increasing number of reverse enquiries for privately placed MTNs, and these could finally provide African issuers with access to international bond markets in a size that suits them. Obstacles still remain but this business should be encouraged.
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On the surface, the last few weeks has been a torrid one in the CEEMEA primary markets. A string of names postponed bonds, and one printed at a yield a whopping 150bp wide of initial price thoughts. But these events are not indicative of a foundering market — they are the result of investors taking realistic decisions about where they want to invest and at what price.
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The latest round of grubby trader banter released into the world, with its trail of monster fines and possible criminal prosecution, should make everyone sit up and pay attention. The primary markets might be cleaner and more civilised than spot FX, but it won’t be enough just to say so.
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Bankers working on a loan for Promsvyazbank believe the hotly anticipated deal is imminent – and that it will do more to reopen the international market to Russian borrowers than Gazprom did with its bond last week.
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Journalists sometimes have to choose between being fast and being right. The Financial Stability Board, with its Total Loss Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) plans, has chosen to be fast, and a weaker financial system will be the result. -
A spate of restructurings and defaults by Chinese companies has spooked the syndicated loans market and some banks are now saying there will be a flight to quality. However, by squeezing lending to mid-cap names, banks could miss out on funding the next Xiaomi or Alibaba. Instead they should improve their credit checks and look for more innovative solutions.
