CEE Bonds

The collapse in the Turkish lira has stoked fears as to how the nation’s borrowers will repay their foreign currency debt just as the country's foreign exchange reserves are shrinking.

Turkey’s finance minister, Berat Albayrak, is holding an investor call at 2pm London time today. Over 5,000 participants are registered for the call and will be looking to see if the politician can bring calm to the crisis engulfing Turkish and wider emerging markets.

EM bond investors are watching Turkish banks closely, as some of the banks have heavy maturities falling due in the next year and capital ratios are being battered by the huge drop in the lira. But DCM bankers are telling these issuers that the lower levels may mean there are opportunities for buy-backs.

Gazprom may have stepped away from the international capital markets but its liquidity position remains strong enough to keep it afloat for the foreseeable future, provided the diplomatic situation between Russia and the US does not worsen.

Good old fashioned contagion has led the worsening situation in the Turkish market battering the rest of emerging markets this week as a plummeting lira and spiking Turkish CDS levels spooked buyers across CEEMEA and Latin America. Even western Europe has been feeling the heat as investors start to fret about Turkish exposure.

Asia’s offshore bond market ran to a near stand-still this week, with just one issuer selling a dollar bond. While the typical summer lull is to blame for at least some of the quiet, bankers were divided on whether the crisis in Turkey has made things worse for Asian issuers.

The Turkish lira rebounded strongly on Tuesday morning in London while sovereign CDS rallied 40bp — but investors are still calling for more action and concerns remain high that without a big rate rise from the Turkish Central Bank, the selling will shortly resume.

The currency crisis in Turkey has prompted analysts to hone in on the balance sheets of European banks, as they look for the first signs of an increase in income volatility following the introduction of the new IFRS 9 accounting standard.

Equity and debt markets are preparing for a full blown crisis in Turkey and even though its currency pulled back from its early-week lows, investors are worrying about debt defaults.

Yields on Turkey’s sovereign debt hit 20% this week, stoking fears of a debt crisis. But breaking the purported psychological importance of the 20% ceiling does not add much to the well-established litany of issues facing the country’s economy.

UniCredit’s senior management team had to fend off a barrage of questions about the bank’s exposure to Turkish bank Yapi Kredi this week, as yields spiked on Turkish local currency debt and the lira slid further against the dollar. UniCredit’s equity stake is accounted at €2.5bn, but worth less than €1.2bn in today’s market.

A pair of US sanctions against Russia could have potentially disastrous consequences for local and international bond investors, especially if a planned ban against the purchase of new sovereign debt takes effect, writes Lewis McLellan.