CEE Bonds
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UBS and Citi trader Tom Hayes was jailed for 11 years for manipulating Libor. But while the trader argued that he was made a scapegoat for the financial crisis, perhaps the rate he rigged is a bigger victim. -
Ukraine’s GDP warrants are trading around a cash price of 85. That is way below JP Morgan's view that fair value is closer to 135. No matter the new, surprisingly positive GDP growth forecasts and enthusiasm for the country’s new leadership, from the trading numbers it seems clear that investors do not believe they will get their money from Ukraine.
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Investors’ fears were realised on Thursday when the Turkish central bank lowered its key policy rate by 425bp. Analysts joined them in saying that the move will provoke a return of inflation, damage the lira and complicate loan pricing.
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Ukraine’s government bonds rallied ferociously this week after a decisive victory for president Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People party in Sunday’s parliamentary elections. As the end of the week approached, investors started to question how much further the buying could run and what the fate of the country’s GDP warrants will be.
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Investors’ fears were confirmed on Thursday when the Turkish central bank lowered its key policy rate by 425bp. Analysts joined them in saying that the move will provoke a return of inflation and damage the lira.
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Turkey’s bonds have put up an incredible display of resilience to geopolitical shocks so far, but investors fear that an aggressive cut to the main policy rate will cause inflation to return and puncture confidence in the country’s economy.
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Czech energy distributor EP Infrastructure came to market on Tuesday morning for a seven year Reg S benchmark — its second ever bond. The bond had been announced on Monday as a dual tranche six year and 10 year.
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CPI Property Group printed a Reg S tap of its $350m 4.75% March 2023s on Monday, but some chopping and changing over the size during execution had some rival syndicate managers expressing consternation.
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The Servant of the People party was victorious in Ukraine’s parliamentary elections on Sunday. The move cements the new president Volodymyr Zelensky’s control and should allow him to pursue the reforms mandated by the IMF.
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The US has ousted Turkey from the F-35 stealth fighter programme because the country has begun receiving components of the Russian S-400 missile system. Meanwhile, the central bank’s credibility is damaged and an interest rate decision is only a week away. Does the bond market care? It seems not.
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Hazem Shawki is set to join Credit Suisse from Goldman Sachs in order to lead its investment banking operations in the Middle East, Turkey and Africa, with a particular focus on pushing further into the Saudi Arabian market.
