Milei, Macro and Mexico
◆ Latin America’s bond markets at an (interest rate) inflection point ◆ Who’d be a primary dealer? ◆ What price briiiiidge loans?
As GlobalCapital launches the poll for our first dedicated Latin America Bond Awards, our podcast takes a deep dive into the region’s troubled capital markets, with special guest Omotunde Lawal, head of emerging markets corporate debt at Barings.
There may not be many deals in the market — at least not public ones, as Lawal points out — but there is masses going on. Javier Milei, Argentina’s new populist firebrand president, has gobsmacked everyone by choosing establishment figures to run finance. Mexico has an election next year that could hold upside for the markets, and in the meantime, the region’s CFOs and treasurers, used to tough times, are getting on with the job.
In Europe, we look at government bond primary dealerships, long a source of gripes for investment banks as it is so hard to make money on them, and easy to lose it. Capital rules are about to tilt the balance of incentives still further, and waiting in the wings are non-bank market makers like Citadel Securities.
Patience is a virtue — especially in the loan market, where bridge loans for M&A deals are having to go on, and on, and on. M&A deals simply take longer to close nowadays, which is changing the dynamics for banks.