Covered Bonds

Belgian banks have submitted feedback on Belgium’s draft covered bond law and are waiting for the ministry of finance and the central bank to begin the political process to enact the legislation. The country’s notoriously fractious political set-up means that this could take a while — though Belgium’s major banks have all thrown their weight behind the law.

As the first half of the year draws to a close, the original 2010 predictions for total covered bond issuance in 2011 from most analysts appear exceptionally conservative. Several analysts have revised their estimates, and predictions for covered bond issuance over the next six months are in the Eu80bn-100bn range.

The ‘A1’ tranche on Achmea’s DMPL IX RMBS showed just how insulated Dutch prime RMBS has been from Greek fears, as leads Deutsche Bank and Natixis priced an increased size of Eu253.9m 5bp inside the tight end of guidance.

Leads Barclays Capital, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley released guidance on Co-op Bank’s new UK RMBS Silk Road No. 2 on Wednesday, following the result of the Greek vote. With cash prices on the benchmark Granite programme down this week amid dealers dropping inventory, the leads seem to be offering some premium to recent comparable UK primary issues.

The Greek parliament met market expectations yesterday and approved the austerity bill, ushering in a period of mild relief however temporary it turns out to be. Secondary market flows picked up, particularly for Spanish cédulas which showed stronger buying interest. But covered bond syndicate officials do not expect a long window for primary issuance. CRH and OP bank have been quick to take advantage of the more positive mood with the former raising Eu1bn of 11 year funding via a tap and the latter mandating leads for a seven year to be priced tomorrow.

The South Korean Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) and Financial Services Commission (FSC) notified the Korea Federation of Banks and commercial bonds of a list of guidelines on the issuance of covered bonds on Thursday.

HSBC became the latest issuer to tap the dollar market on Tuesday, pricing an inaugural $1.25bn three year deal. In contrast to euro denominated supply, which in H2 2011 is not expected to match the record amount issued in the first six months of the year, dollar issuance is expected to expand. German and Italian issuers are understood to be preparing debut dollar benchmarks, and the South Korean government today encouraged certain banks to increase issuance.

Covered bond bankers expect the Greek parliament to approve austerity measures in today’s vote, but even if that happens, they do not expect much of a relief rally. If the measures are not approved then it’s likely that the consequences will be catastrophic.

Fitch downgraded Banco de Sabadell and Banco Español de Crédito (Banesto) on Wednesday, because of exposure to the Spanish real estate sector and the weak economic environment in Spain.

Four major investors talked to The Cover about their near term strategy and thinking. They do not think much will change, even if there is a positive Greek outcome. Though two of them felt sentiment could improve a little if the prospective Bankia IPO is successful, confidence in the banking sector is not in great shape.

Leads Deutsche Bank and Natixis have issued guidance on Achmea’s new Dutch RMBS, DMPL IX, with the two year ‘A1’ class at 95bp-100bp and the five year ‘A2’ class at 140bp. This is outside the levels BNP Paribas’s Phedina 2011-1 achieved last week – that deal was priced at 90bp and 130bp for tranches of similar average life. However, a large lead order helped to anchor that price and the BNPP deal had around 40% NHG-guaranteed mortgages in the pool.