United States

RBS braved a hostile market to price the second euro benchmark of the week on Wednesday. Strong domestic and offshore demand made up for a minimal German bid, ensuring a solid €750m print.

European covered bond markets continue to look in poor shape as the macro sovereign backdrop dramatically deteriorates. This suggests that Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s euro denominated benchmark is likely to remain on hold for the time being. But that should not delay Westpac, which is planning to open books on Thursday afternoon.

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group priced the first Australian covered bond on Tuesday, launching a benchmark dollar trade that attracted broad demand and a healthy level of oversubscription. Meanwhile RBS has opened books on the week’s second euro benchmark, though given the jurisdictions concerned CBPP2 remains unable to support the primary market.

A group of four US senators from both political parties has introduced US covered bond legislation into the Senate. Bi-partisan support from the upper house is highly encouraging, and though the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp still has issues with prospective legislation, broad Congressional support could still push the bill through.

While Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia headed to the US on Monday to market debut covered bonds, ANZ has started meeting investors in Europe, after finishing a US roadshow last week.

Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) started US roadshows on Monday and will go into investor meetings with expected/provisional triple-A ratings secured for their programmes. All four Australian banks with covered bond programmes now have provisional triple-A ratings from Moody’s and Fitch. But National Australia Bank (NAB) is winning the race to issue Australia’s first covered bond, after completing its US and European roadshow last week and mandating for a dollar transaction on Friday.

The UK’s Co-operative bank has sidestepped European turmoil and swap costs by choosing to bring its inaugural 10 year transaction in sterling. After finishing a roadshow earlier in the week the issuer sold its debut benchmark at the tight end of guidance against an improved market backdrop, with an attractive new issue premium.

Market indices rallied on Thursday, following the EU’s unveiling of its Grand Plan to remedy the eurozone’s woes. BPCE was quick to capitalise on the upturn, securing nearly four times oversubscription for a minimum €200m tap of its 10 year. Bank Austria also moved swiftly on the positive mood and is taking IOIs for possible pricing this afternoon or Friday. Bank of Montreal showed the strength of US demand on Wednesday, when it attracted $3.75bn of demand for its $2bn three year deal. But the floodgates are unlikely to open fully ahead of November 3 when the ECB will announce details of its purchase programme.

German issuers with US dollar assets in their cover pools may start looking at the US 144A market early next year, following the German Association of Pfandbrief Banks (vdp) first US roadshow in three years.

Europe’s banks need to give US covered bond investors more detail and with more frequency if they are to retain access to the coveted buyer base, fund managers have told the industry.

In a panel on new markets at Wednesday’s European Covered Bond Council plenary session it was stated that much hyped US covered bond legislation might not materialise until 2014. But with the OCC and not FDIC likely to be the US covered bond regulator for big banks, a market size of up to $640bn is seen. The Canadian covered bond market is likely to lack homogeneity as non federally regulated borrowers are excluded from the law.

Following the US downgrade, the dollar market for triple-A rated bonds has been reduced from around $15,000bn to $136bn, closing the market to dedicated triple A buyers. Covered bonds should benefit, but with up to 40% likely to be downgraded within a year, buyers will need to be selective.