UK

Markets stabilised on Tuesday morning following S&P’s announcement that it may cut sovereign ratings across the eurozone, ending three days of sovereign tightening. Overall the tone remains constructive, according to covered bond traders, with better buying in French and peripheral covered bonds. But with only a couple of weeks of trading to go before year end, and covered bond spreads not following sovereigns tighter, issuers are still most likely to wait for an opportunity in January.

HM Treasury has released its review of the UK’s regulatory framework for covered bonds. It includes responses to its April consultation paper and details changes to the UK’s Regulated Covered Bond (RCB) framework, aimed at improving transparency and making the UK market more comparable with other European jurisdictions.

National Australia Bank’s UK Clydesdale Bank subsidiary looks set to undertake its first wholesale mortgage financing exercise since 2007 in the RMBS market, as opposed to covered bonds. The borrower had roadshowed a newly set-up covered bond programme in summer, but this has since been sidelined. The RMBS funding is not only more cost efficient but also less onerous from a ratings perspective compared to a covered bond.

ECB purchasing reached €930m on a settlement basis by the end of last week, with traders reporting buying of German, French, and some Spanish paper in the secondary market. The impact of the programme remains limited, however, and there have been calls for the eurosystem central banks to make bonds purchased under the programme available for bilateral repo purposes.

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group priced the first Australian covered bond on Tuesday, launching a benchmark dollar trade that attracted broad demand and a healthy level of oversubscription. Meanwhile RBS has opened books on the week’s second euro benchmark, though given the jurisdictions concerned CBPP2 remains unable to support the primary market.

News of the ECB’s latest covered bond purchase programme has failed to move secondary spreads, analysts and syndicate officials told The Cover on Monday. Meanwhile the situation in peripheral jurisdictions continues to deteriorate, making the programme’s success all the more contingent upon concrete political resolution in the individual countries, and Europe as a whole.

The ECB’s quest to bring loan-level disclosure to the European ABS market moved forward on Tuesday, with technology and data firm Sapient Global Markets appointed to build the database providing loan-level data to the market. The announcement comes as covered bond borrowers grapple with the provision of far less onerous transparency initiatives being demanded by investors.

Peripheral covered bonds tightened against government debt on Monday, undoing sovereign outperformance following last Thursday’s rally. Bid offer spreads continued to widen across the board as participants remain cautious ahead of purchase programme details.

Activity has once again shifted into dollars, with European investors paralysed by a lack of detail on the upcoming ECB covered bond purchase programme and a resolution of the sovereign debt crisis. Meanwhile Canadian banks issue dollar deals with ease, and Australia’s big four could be swayed into taking the same route for their respective debuts, said syndicate officials.

The covered bond market remains on hold while it waits for news from the EU summit, the ECB meeting and details of the covered bond purchase programme. Despite continuing systemic doubts, bankers believe the market is open for the right name at the right spread. But even if a solution is unveiled, underlying issues driving the sovereign crisis are expected to resurface — unless the ECB’s mandate is changed.

Speculation that Lloyds would join HSBC and Barclays to issue a covered bond benchmark in US dollars has faded. The allure of RMBS is taking precedence as funding considerations add to other structural advantages. Lloyds, which had been rumoured with a dollar covered bond deal earlier this year, has therefore decided to go for an RMBS.

Despite a widening yield spread between France and Germany, French covered bonds continue to perform well, bolstered by support from domestic investors. French issuers, prescient of their 2012 funding needs and the risk to their country’s top rating, could be tempted to return to the markets with a benchmark before the end of the month.