The Netherlands

The covered bond market has remained active into late July and syndicate bankers say conditions are still good for further benchmark deals in the wake of ABN Amro’s success this week. With spreads returning to 2010 levels ABN chose to bring forward a jumbo deal originally scheduled for August. But as the macro outlook deteriorates, issuers cannot be sure that the secondary rally will survive the summer break.

ABN Amro launched a €1.5bn seven year benchmark covered bond on Tuesday, building a book of over €4bn for the first Dutch trade since January. Pricing divided syndicate bankers away from the deal. But with the first jumbo transaction in three weeks ABN proved that the covered market remains primed for supply, and could urge other names to take advantage of a closing window.

The senior market took centre stage again on Tuesday, dissuading covered issuers from competing with another trio of unsecured trades after Westpac’s slow bookbuild on Monday. The Australian issuer closed the spread gap with its Nordic peers, but found demand lacklustre compared with earlier Australian benchmarks.

There has been plenty of interest in core and even peripheral names in the secondary market this week, especially at the long end, where investors have been tempted by juicy Spanish yields. A briefly negative basis in covered versus CDS spurred interest.

Moody’s cut two Dutch covered bond programmes on Friday after taking action on five Dutch banking groups earlier the same morning. Issuers’ large mortgage books and reliance on wholesale funding made them vulnerable in a poor market environment, it said. Meanwhile, analysts expect house prices and house sales to continue their decline.

Germany’s Helaba broke ranks with cautious covered bond issuers on Tuesday to launch the first euro benchmark trade for two weeks. The rare borrower found strong demand for a €1bn public sector backed transaction, and another deal out of core Europe is expected on Wednesday, said syndicate bankers.

The European covered bond market is stabilising on Friday, with buyers reported in French and Scandinavian names. But the Spanish market remains shaky, and though selective bids returned the macro sovereign backdrop deteriorated after Thursday's brief impovement.

Spain’s Bankinter and Bankia are expected to launch short dated trades later this week, after the primary market paused for breath on Monday. Cash rich investors with an appetite for risk should ensure they get a strong reception, but negative rating action could yet cause them to hold off.

Issuers could hardly hope for a better backdrop to bring benchmark deals. Bond yields are falling and investors are looking to put cash to work across a swathe of asset classes to capitalise on the rally, as seen most emphatically in the senior unsecured market this week. Yet Norway’s Sparebank Vest Boligkreditt remains the only obvious candidate for a deal next week.

ABN Amro and Credit Suisse maintained primary market momentum on Wednesday, adding another €2.25bn of supply. ABN Amro paid above initial price thoughts to ensure smooth execution of its 10 year, while Credit Suisse was able to price its five year inside UBS’s offering last week — making it the tightest five year euro print of the year.

Four covered bond issuers collectively raised over €5bn of new funding on Tuesday across two currencies and three tenors. Total issuance this week exceeds €8bn equivalent and on Wednesday a further two are lining up with euro benchmarks. This suggests borrowers will have raised at least €25bn equivalent this year by the close of play on Wednesday.

Though the first day of activity in 2012 brought fewer trades than in 2011, the number of accounts that participated in the deals was up on last year. Almost 400 buyers participated in Tuesday’s salvo, with Germany taking over half of primary allocation.