Spain

Moody’s expects negative rating actions on covered bonds to substantially outnumber any positive actions in the year ahead, due principally to weakness in the sovereign and banking sectors.

After a busy close to last week, covered bond activity has followed through this week with Abbey, Dexia MA and Westpac announcing deals while active bookbuilding commenced on Abbey, Banco Populare and Bayern LB.

Spain’s Bankinter has priced a Eu500m, no grow, two-year cédulas hipotecárias at 310bp over mid-swaps which, though inside 315bp area guidance and a 320bp price whisper, was the widest primary print for any Spanish issuer on record.

Fitch yesterday (Wednesday) downgraded mortgage backed covered bonds issued by Caja de Ahorros de Murcia from AAA to AA, and removed them from negative review, following its downgrade of Caja Murcia’s issuer rating from A+ to BBB+.

Following successful Spanish and Italian government bond auctions the primary covered bond market picked up pace today with three mandate announcements two of which are from peripheral European jurisdictions. And, while conditions hold out, there are likely to be a few more mandates in the wings.

News earlier this week that the German regulator, Bafin, had sent out a draft letter regarding the treatment of structured covered bonds, has added to concerns that certain structures may see renewed selling pressure. But for some investors this may herald an investment opportunity.

Fitch today (Tuesday) placed mortgage covered bonds issued by Caja de Ahorros y Monte de Piedad de Navarra on review for possible downgrade.

BBVA and Santander’s respective three and five year cédulas deals are offered in the Street with no bid, making the task of other Spanish issuers looking to tap the market that much more challenging.

The covered bond market has experienced its busiest ever week with as many as 15 deals pricing, giving a grand total of about Eu19bn over the holiday shortened week.

The iTraxx senior financials is trading wider ahead of the release of the EC’s latest draft consultation paper, which is likely to confirm suspicions that an EU wide initiative on bank bail-ins is going to be hard-coded into regulation.

Santander priced what was possibly one of the more challenging deals of the week, a Eu1bn five year via leads Barclays Capital, Citgroup, Goldman Sachs, LBBW and Santander.

Spain's Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA yesterday successfully priced the first Spanish covered bond since early November when Caja Madrid tapped the market. It was therefore “important they make sure that they did so in a preferable way,” a syndicate official at one of the leads explained.