Spain

Following successful Spanish and Italian government bond auctions the primary covered bond market picked up pace today with three mandate announcements two of which are from peripheral European jurisdictions. And, while conditions hold out, there are likely to be a few more mandates in the wings.

News earlier this week that the German regulator, Bafin, had sent out a draft letter regarding the treatment of structured covered bonds, has added to concerns that certain structures may see renewed selling pressure. But for some investors this may herald an investment opportunity.

Fitch today (Tuesday) placed mortgage covered bonds issued by Caja de Ahorros y Monte de Piedad de Navarra on review for possible downgrade.

BBVA and Santander’s respective three and five year cédulas deals are offered in the Street with no bid, making the task of other Spanish issuers looking to tap the market that much more challenging.

The covered bond market has experienced its busiest ever week with as many as 15 deals pricing, giving a grand total of about Eu19bn over the holiday shortened week.

The iTraxx senior financials is trading wider ahead of the release of the EC’s latest draft consultation paper, which is likely to confirm suspicions that an EU wide initiative on bank bail-ins is going to be hard-coded into regulation.

Santander priced what was possibly one of the more challenging deals of the week, a Eu1bn five year via leads Barclays Capital, Citgroup, Goldman Sachs, LBBW and Santander.

Spain's Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA yesterday successfully priced the first Spanish covered bond since early November when Caja Madrid tapped the market. It was therefore “important they make sure that they did so in a preferable way,” a syndicate official at one of the leads explained.

Primary issuance continues to power ahead with five deals pricing yesterday and a further five deals expected to price this afternoon. Several more have been announced but, in a possible sign of things to come, two have been postponed and there is speculation that another is struggling.

After a very quiet December, market participants are not surprised to see a strong start to the primary market in the New Year, with one deal already priced and as many as seven others on the way.

German 10-year Bunds are correcting slightly higher this (Friday) morning, but a long term trend of rising yields that has been in place since August remains intact. As a result, real money accounts are increasingly hitting their target returns –a driving factor behind a hugely upsized increase of a tap for Caisse de Refinancement de l’Habitat.

Benchmark covered bond supply in 2011 is likely to be close to 2010 volumes, according to covered bond analysts, with no analysis forecasting more than a Eu20bn rise or fall relative to 2010 levels.