Spain

The mood is buoyant and several deals look likely to be announced before long. LTSB and Nationwide have been added to the existing rumours of La Caixa and Sabadell, but with sentiment improving issuers are thinking the market is on a roll so maybe they are better placed to wait a few days more, in which case funding costs could be shaved by even more.

Despite decent selling of 10-year paper in the secondary market, the overall tone remains very positive. In the primary market this was most conspicuous in the books for SG’s Eu1bn 12-year, which has attracted the largest oversubscription so far this year. Banco Popular's deal has also gone smoothly.

The covered bond primary market has ground to a halt as players look to the upcoming EFSF issue, which is due to price Tuesday. Once that’s out of the way there are high hopes the market will rebound, particularly for Spanish bonds which have performed well recently.

The primary market for European bank issued covered bonds appears to be gently slowing with just one deal from France’s Dexia MA pricing yesterday and another from Germany’s Aareal closing books at midday. In contrast a number of transactions are in the works from Canadian and Australian banks across a range of currencies –inaugural deals from new issuers and several rumours of others.

Moody’s expects negative rating actions on covered bonds to substantially outnumber any positive actions in the year ahead, due principally to weakness in the sovereign and banking sectors.

After a busy close to last week, covered bond activity has followed through this week with Abbey, Dexia MA and Westpac announcing deals while active bookbuilding commenced on Abbey, Banco Populare and Bayern LB.

Spain’s Bankinter has priced a Eu500m, no grow, two-year cédulas hipotecárias at 310bp over mid-swaps which, though inside 315bp area guidance and a 320bp price whisper, was the widest primary print for any Spanish issuer on record.

Fitch yesterday (Wednesday) downgraded mortgage backed covered bonds issued by Caja de Ahorros de Murcia from AAA to AA, and removed them from negative review, following its downgrade of Caja Murcia’s issuer rating from A+ to BBB+.

Following successful Spanish and Italian government bond auctions the primary covered bond market picked up pace today with three mandate announcements two of which are from peripheral European jurisdictions. And, while conditions hold out, there are likely to be a few more mandates in the wings.

News earlier this week that the German regulator, Bafin, had sent out a draft letter regarding the treatment of structured covered bonds, has added to concerns that certain structures may see renewed selling pressure. But for some investors this may herald an investment opportunity.

Fitch today (Tuesday) placed mortgage covered bonds issued by Caja de Ahorros y Monte de Piedad de Navarra on review for possible downgrade.

BBVA and Santander’s respective three and five year cédulas deals are offered in the Street with no bid, making the task of other Spanish issuers looking to tap the market that much more challenging.