Spain

In a flurry of activity that offered another glimpse of the spare cash washing around the European banking sector after the ECB’s first Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) in December, Spain’s CatalunyaCaixa and Banco Popular Español launched tender offers this week, buying back ABS, covered bonds and hybrids.

When National Bank of Greece announced a buyback last month, many market participants felt it would be a one off. But soon after Portugal’s BPI launched its own tender and because that market is slightly bigger, bankers said a handful of issuers might well consider a similar exercise. Now Spain’s Caixabank has followed suit by announcing a tender. Given the large €360bn size of the Cédulas market, it’s fair to assume that the potential for ALM exercises is much greater than had previously been assumed.

Santander built potentially the largest ever order book for a covered bond on Wednesday, restarting Spanish supply with a stellar €2bn benchmark. The trade answered an investor base baying for three year paper after an LTRO induced drought, and a variety of issuers from in and outside the Eurozone could follow in its wake.

A day after Santander said it would not need to access wholesale markets this year, the bank surprised the market and broke the seven month cédulas drought with a blow-out €2bn three year.

The ECB's Long Term Refinancing Operation could increase the bid for covered bonds through its restorative effect on the senior unsecured market.

Bank of New Zealand returned to the market on Monday with a long three year benchmark, after postponing a five year trade earlier this month. The change of maturity and capped deal size yielded a far more positive result, with over 100 accounts contributing to the most oversubscribed order book of the year.

The secondary market in covered bonds is in danger of breaking, and though it is not there yet, there are concerns over ‘forced delivery squeezes’ in the repo market which may lead to failed trades. Though it has always been the intention of the European Central Bank to improve liquidity, there are some who now say that it is not doing enough. Covered bonds could risk becoming almost like a private placement market if the current situation persists.

With many French and Scandinavian issuers in blackout, the European covered bond pipeline is light on potential candidates for primary supply. Dwindling issuance is forcing investors to look at the secondary market for paper and has contributed to some spread tightening, particularly for Spanish Cédulas, making the prospect of a publicly sold deal from a Spanish national champion not quite so far fetched.

As eurozone issuers slip into blackout, Australian, Nordic and Canadian names have taken over primary market supply. Westpac is planning trades in euros and Australian dollars, while Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt began taking indications of interest on a seven year trade this Monday morning.

A sizeable new euro bid for UK RMBS emerged this week as Santander UK’s £2.2bn-equivalent Holmes 2012-1 provided the sector’s first issue of the year. The deal raised funding at levels considerably tighter than where it could have issued in covered bonds.

The non-eurozone, no-euro theme in the covered bond market continued on Thursday with the announcement of two debut currency benchmarks, one of which was priced. After the successes of Barclays and Nationwide, National Australia Bank issued its first sterling dea, Lloyds mandated for another sterling deal and UBS is set to bring its first dollar deal.

Covered bond spreads have survived sweeping sovereign downgrades by Standard & Poor’s on Friday. Only French issuer Dexia was reported wider on Monday morning, while the LTRO cash injection has ensured short dated Spanish and French paper remains highly sought after.