Spain

The UK’s Clydesdale Bank has finished a domestic roadshow and could launch an inaugural benchmark mid-week after receiving final investor feedback on Tuesday. Australia’s Suncorp Bank, meanwhile, is expected to announce a formal mandate for its own domestic debut later in the week.

Europe’s peripheral covered bond markets are looking over their shoulders after Fitch downgraded Banco Popular Portugal’s covered bonds on Wednesday. This followed downgrades of Greek and Cypriot covered bonds which have left their issuers unable to access emergency ECB repo funding.

The axe of Moody’s has fallen on Cédulas as the agency continues its European wide review on financial institutions. Unlike their Italian peers, many Spanish covered bonds remain double-A rated, and all retain vital access to ECB funding while the primary market becomes ever more elusive.

Moody’s downgraded six Italian covered bond programmes in the first step of a review of 114 banks across 16 European countries. The sweeping cuts left only Intesa San Paolo and UniCredit with double-A ratings and consigned the rest of the Italian covered bond sector to single-A.

S&P cut Spain by two notches to triple B plus on Thursday night, leaving the sovereign precariously close to junk. And although government bonds have lurched 20bp wider, the Cédulas market has shown a stoic response. But the rating agency’s move came as Banco Popular also announced a jump in non-performing loans in its first quarter results – concentrating minds on the country’s unfolding real estate crisis to which Cédulas are inextricably linked.

Canadian issuers will no longer be able to use insured mortgages as collateral for covered bonds. Finance minister Jim Flaherty introduced a bill into the Canadian parliament on Thursday that will create a register for covered bond issuers. The bill will also prohibit the use of mortgages insured by private insurers or by the government backed Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp (CMHC).

Rising unemployment in Spain could hit residential mortgage portfolios, JP Morgan analysts have warned. An increase in non-performing loans would affect Spanish cover pools, while a lack of adequate measures to deal with mortgage losses means subordinated bondholders could be called on to provide additional capital.

Hopes for imminent covered bond issuance dimmed on Monday as the asked for stability proved elusive. With government spreads still widening and background volatility persistent, even top issuers will have to offer positive new issue premiums to compensate buyers, said syndicate officials.

The European covered bond market is stabilising on Friday, with buyers reported in French and Scandinavian names. But the Spanish market remains shaky, and though selective bids returned the macro sovereign backdrop deteriorated after Thursday's brief impovement.

Covered bond supply should restart next week given a stable opening, said syndicate officials on Friday, and several issuers are looking to launch trades. But with upcoming elections in France and the market still full of uncertainty after the renewed volatility of early this week, headline risk could keep second quarter supply muted.

The value of collateral backing Cédulas and RMBS came under increased scrutiny on Thursday following the publication of Banesto’s first quarter results. Unlike in many jurisdictions, Spanish cover pools are not indexed to the declining value of house prices, with the result that they can quickly become overstated.

Spread tightening has stalled after the first quarter rally, according to DZ analysts, who urged investors to reposition themselves in preparation for spread widening. But with many investors still on holiday, the secondary market has become easier to move with smaller tickets, and traders said it was too early to draw conclusions from an increase in selling.