Spain

Sovereign markets have started to stabilise but covered bonds have lagged this move and remain under pressure in the secondary market. The focus has been on Spain but dealers also reported weakness in French covered bonds. In the primary market, issuance hopes remain dim, though bankers think there may be room for a Swedish or Finnish deal.

Axa Bank Europe SCF launched its third and largest euro benchmark covered bond on Tuesday, pricing a €1bn trade at the tight end of guidance. Investors seemed untroubled by the rare RMBS collateral, allowing Axa to follow recent French trades in offering a minimal new issue concession.

Moody’s provided a timely reminder that all is not right in the state of Spain on Monday. Following a 41% year-on-year decline in mortgage lending, over-collateralisation levels have eroded, it said. The news came against a background of Cédulas selling as concerns mounted for the country’s banking sector, with non-performing loans soaring and house price falls accelerating.

Investors are fed up with focusing too much on the strength of issuing banks to value covered bonds. Now they are demanding more details about the underlying assets. But baring all is not necessarily the solution for borrowers either.

Top tier names can offer zero premiums on primary trades but lower ranked issuers have no such luxury, syndicate officials told The Cover on Monday.

After a four week gestation period, Bankinter priced the first Spanish deal since February 22, and its first funding since January 2011. The transaction was remarkable, not just for its size and pricing, but particularly for its tenor — which at five years, was well beyond the LTRO supported three year point.

Spain’s Bankinter launched a long awaited benchmark on Monday, pricing only the fourth euro jumbo in as many weeks. Spreads could widen suddenly if conditions deteriorate, warned analysts, but with supply scarce and curves steep between three to five years, investors will continue to ride the wave of optimism.

Barring a poor outcome from Greece’s private sector initiative, primary supply is poised to pick up, said syndicate bankers, who advised issuers to launch trades while the market remains receptive. Covered bond analysts are lowering their euro benchmark forecasts, however, and investors are concerned about declining issuance.

The secondary covered bond rally rolls on, grinding spreads tighter and pushing yields to their limit. But foresight and fundamentals have played no part in the lust for peripheral paper. As lucrative as the carry trade has been for banks, when things turn sour investors could find themselves trapped.

Cajamar Caja Rural has become the latest Spanish bank to try to buy back debt, tendering for up to €300m of ABS and covered bonds.

The covered bond market remains extremely well supported, with recent deals all performing well and secondary flows largely one way. Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Toronto-Dominion have mandated for dollar trades. Yorkshire and Coventry Building Societies have left blackout but could turn to sterling. Bankinter has mandated in euros but is biding its time while Cédulas spreads tighten. ING DiBa is expected soon after roadshowing last week.

A higher than expected take-up from a broader number of banks in the European Central Bank’s second long term refinancing operation has provided a lift to what is already a very well bid covered bond market.