Spain

Spanish government bonds performed well on Friday but long term concerns about the outlook for Spain are spooking traders who are increasingly willing to consider leaving illiquid Cédulas shorts uncovered. In core markets, traders are focused on the Bund swap spread and suggested that a potential sell off could be accompanied by a spread tightening.

Plans to amend Spanish mortgage law will hit covered bond investors and could limit credit flow into the country, Moody’s warned on Monday, as they will weaken lender recourse to borrowers, and lower the level of over-collateralisation.

Cédulas have dominated covered bond issuance so far in 2013, aided by a remarkable rally that has seen nine deals printed this week. However, oversubscription rates have dwindled this week, and both core and periphery issuers may need to increase what they offer investors to get their attention in a crowded market.

Banco Santander’s first covered bond for nearly a year, a €2bn five year, surprised the market by hitting the middle part of the curve on Monday. The spread did not change from initial price thoughts to final terms, which showed the plan had been to take a large chunk out of the market, bankers told The Cover.

Deutsche Genossenschafts-Hypothekenbank has hired banks for a mortgage Pfandbrief, which is pencilled in for Tuesday. It may have company from Commerzbank, which The Cover understands is also eyeing Tuesday for Europe’s first ever SME structured covered bond.

Standard and Poor’s announced on Thursday that it had revised its categorisation of all Spanish covered bond programmes from Category 1 to Category 2, thereby lowering the maximum rating uplift between an issuer and its covered bond programme from seven notches to six.

Issuers looking for rehabilitation in the capital markets and wanting to wean themselves off central bank funding must be careful to ensure they issue strategic deals that have a high chance of performing. This should lower their long term cost of funding and enable greater market access.

After three senior euro bond issues this year, BBVA this week chose to extend the duration of its liabilities with the issuance of its first covered bond of the year. At 100bp through the sovereign, BBVA was the first Spanish bank to borrow significantly cheaper than the government. However, at €2bn the deal size was too large and led to a dismal secondary market performance.

BBVA’s surprise five year follows a pattern set by Intesa and suggests that other issuers, such as Banco Santander or Caixa Geral de Depósitos, could look to extend the duration of their funding with a covered bond.

BBVA has become the first Spanish borrower to smash through the sovereign floor with the imminent pricing of its five year Cédulas Hipotecarias. The deal follows last week’s impressive funding from Intesa Sanpaolo and illustrates the continuing bid for higher yielding secured debt.

Spain’s government was due to pass a decree on Thursday that would suspend evictions of homeowners in financial difficulty, as the country works on changes to its mortgage law. The effect on Cédulas performance is likely to be limited, however, given the low threshold for assistance.

Standard & Poor’s has cut BNP Paribas ratings and lowered its outlook on four other French covered bonds issuers because of rising risk in the French banking system. Meanwhile, Moody’s downgraded CIF Euromortgage’s covered bonds after taking the same action on the issuer.