Spain

The larger than expected quantitative easing programme announced by the European Central Bank on Thursday has turbo-charged the well-established bull flattening trend in covered bonds and trading volumes have tripled from earlier in the week. With the long end of French market now offering a tempting spread to OATs, real money buyers are set to return. And with Bonos and BTPs rallying hard, relative value between covered bonds and sovereigns should soon be restored in the Cédulas and Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite markets.

Moody’s upgraded 12 Italian and Spanish covered bonds into “Aa” territory after the close on Wednesday, taking the bonds from category 2A to 1B in the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR). Though this should theoretically improve bank demand, last week’s LCR impact study published by the European Banking Authority (EBA) showed most banks had already met their minimum LCR requirement, suggesting scope for an improvement in appetite will be limited.

The covered bond primary market maintained robust momentum on Thursday as another four issuers priced deals. The seven year tenor remains the firm favourite with two new trades on Thursday taking the total to eight this year.

Cajas Rurales Unidas is set to become the second Spanish issuer to launch a deal this week, having mandated leads for its third euro benchmark. The transaction is likely to offer the most attractive spread seen in covered bonds this year, and could reprice the issuer’s curve.

Santander raised €7.5bn of equity capital in a block trade on Thursday January 8, the biggest ever outside the US, to put its core equity tier one ratio up to 10%. The deal was priced at the low end of the discount range and led to a very steep fall in Santander's share price the day after – yet won some admiration from rival banks.

The once beleaguered multi-Cédulas sector may well be a safer asset class to invest in because, over the last year, overcollateralization (OC) ratios have increased, said Fitch.

A newly proposed legal framework for the Spanish Cédulas market could lead to less overcollateralization, which would in turn lead to downgrades of at least one notch, said Fitch on Thursday. But the introduction of a 12 month liquidity facility could lower the mismatch risk between assets and liabilities leading to a one notch rating improvement, the agency added.

Santander returned to the covered bond market on Wednesday after a 21 month absence with a dual tranche offering that included a 20 year tranche, a duration that has not been seen from a Spanish issuer for at least five years, and which responds to unsated demand from insurance firms.

Australia and New Zealand Bank returned to the covered bond market on Wednesday to issue the tightest ever deal issued by an Australian bank in euros. The five year transaction nevertheless offered a decent pick-up to where covered bonds issued by eurozone banks have been priced and the issuer’s curve.

The European Central Bank's covered bond purchase programme (CBPP3) turned relative value upside down this week, with a French deal pricing inside a similar Swedish offering, among a crop of four new issues.

The European Central Bank’s covered bond purchase programme entered a new phase this week as eurozone issuance enabled it to buy the primary market, rather than relying on secondary where supply is drying up. Its buying is good news for peripheral banks but may cause investors to desert the core.

The Spanish covered bond law could be set for profound change that will bring it into line with the best in show schemes. Proposals set out on Wednesday by the Spanish treasury tie into capital requirement regulations and will become unstoppable under their own momentum. The major challenge is not that investors will have less collateral protection but rather the transition process itself. Grandfathering existing deals isn’t a viable option, there would need to be a huge debt exchange of all existing bonds for new ones or a fundamental change in terms and conditions.