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M&A in 2026: time to summon up the blood


The US bank has won more market share in European IB than its rivals after overhauling its leadership and doubling down in the region’s biggest markets
The US bank has emerged from its restructuring to record impressive market share gains following a reboot of its financial sponsor and leveraged finance businesses
The likely bonus calendar for the Street, expectations and why it all matters
New plan involves hiring to make ECM and M&A revenues match DCM in three years
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  • The leveraged finance market has been the best business for capital markets banks this year — but rising debt levels, weakened investor protections and the rapidly growing volumes have brought regulatory attention. Some banks are pulling back from the most aggressive deals, but others are taking their place, and a burgeoning non-bank lending sector is keeping the market white hot regardless.
  • Pain from Brexit, higher interest rates, quantitative easing ending and political strains in the EU will all lead to more volatility in 2019, according to 22 heads of debt capital markets in the EMEA market, including 18 of the top 20, in Toby Fildes’ annual outlook survey. And that’s before Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Mohammed bin Salman get going. There is some good news, however: financial institutions are set to be big issuers, and the DCM heads expect to be net hirers...
  • Financial markets are often seen as cold, calculating machines for making money. That is part of their function. But increasingly, people are talking of markets’ broader social purpose — that they exist to serve humanity and make its existence healthier and more sustainable. Toby Fildes argues that, 10 years on from the crisis, this new ethos will govern the markets’ future.
  • Citi is pulling out of its China securities joint venture. It gave its partner notice at the end of last week.
  • Credit Suisse used part of an investor day on Wednesday to offer a staunch defence of its leveraged finance business, which forms a larger part of its investment banking and markets business than at its major competitors, but which has seen increasing regulatory scrutiny this year.
  • A banner year for European M&A skewed by a handful of jumbo deals has raised concerns about how much further the cycle has to run. But bankers’ deal pipelines are holding up, and the outlook is strong for 2019, writes David Rothnie.