Organisation

The borrower will not challenge Indian safety for the foreseeable future, but faith in the emerging market (EM) is justified by its improving risk score.

While the focus has been on how Italy must resolve its banking sector problems, investors should also be keeping an eye on the risks lurking elsewhere in Europe.

Uncertainty is increasing for peso assets as the fight for the White House heats up. Even a victory for Hillary Clinton comes with reservations attached, demonstrating how it is not just the possibility of Donald Trump winning that is ringing alarm bells.

Country-by-country assessments of Europe’s banking sector show that risks are at new highs, as the financial services industry struggles to cope with the aftershocks of the 2007/08 crisis. Resolving the Italian bank crisis is key to how it will all pan out.

Euromoney’s survey shows the UK’s risk score falling in the wake of the shock referendum decision coming out in favour of a withdrawal from the European Union. The risk experts acknowledge the potential longer-term positives, the swift changes shoring up political stability, and the opportunities created by the pound depreciating. They are nevertheless concerned by the economic outlook and its impact on the fiscal metrics.

Citi Research has released a detailed report combining its own econometric model with the output from Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey to yield a new, more powerful tool for identifying default probabilities and relative value for sovereign issuers.

Act now before the nuisance becomes a real headache!

Even by the standards of today’s fast-changing regulatory environment, the new OTC variation margin requirements due to be introduced from March 2017 pose a major challenge to sell-side and buy-side alike. Asset managers will face major operational burdens and risks as they prepare to comply; the scale of which may not yet be fully appreciated.

Last week we highlighted the positive performance of the mining sector with the Euromoney Global Mining Index returning +8.55% in October. Certainly not a bad start to the fourth quarter. Platinum producer Lonmin, who has been in the Euromoney Global Mining Index since 1985, topped the companies’ performance league table. That could be a bit misleading.

For the OTC derivatives industry, joining forces is the only way to prepare for a rising tide of regulation. Only a combined industry initiative can drive the transformation in fluidity that will be needed when new regulations place collateral at the centre of every OTC derivatives trade. Unprecedented regulation is leading to unprecedented collaboration.

The Euromoney Smaller European Companies Index Series currently comprises 1350 companies across 16 European countries.

The Euromoney EMIX Europe Index currently comprises 637 companies across 16 European countries, including the largest 350 stocks and the most liquid 35% of the smaller company universe.