Norway

Covered bond bankers expect the Greek parliament to approve austerity measures in today’s vote, but even if that happens, they do not expect much of a relief rally. If the measures are not approved then it’s likely that the consequences will be catastrophic.

Covered bond analysts have turned their attention to rising house prices in Scandinavia, following a report by Standard & Poor’s, which warned that rising private sector debt to GDP levels, fuelled by increased mortgage borrowing, could present a danger to banks and their assets in the event of a severe economic downturn.

Borrowers from peripheral and core jurisdictions priced over Eu6bn worth of benchmark covered bonds across three currencies this week, which included inaugural deals from Italian and New Zealand issuers. Prospects for supply next week are similarly diverse, though volatility and European holidays may narrow the window for issuance.

Dealers report a strong bid in covered bonds this Wednesday morning, though some selling in the five to 10 year segment was welcomed as it helped cover shorts. Dexia Municipal Agency remains under pressure and with Bonos tightening, cédulas have underperformed, triggering some selling.

Länsförsäkringar Hypotek priced a Eu1bn no grow three year Swedish covered bond and DnB Nor priced a Eu1.5bn 10-year. Both deals benefitted from a safe haven bid ensuring a warm investor response.

As a proxy for national mortgage markets, LBBW research has taken a closer look European mortgage pool statistics and macro-economic housing market trends. Controversially, it finds that Spanish NPLs have halved in the last two years. In contrast Scandinavia, which is stereotyped as safer than safe, could be heading for trouble as house prices reach 30-year highs.

After the activity and drama of the first part of the week, Ascension Day holidays across most of Europe have lent a quiet tone to the market and a more sedate close is anticipated. But with as many as five deals mandated and a few others rumoured, the pace is likely to pick up next week.

DnB NOR Boligkreditt AS on Tuesday priced its increased debut five year A$ covered bond from its newly set up A$4bn programme. Its success bodes well for other international issuers who are also looking to diversify their funding and may be considering entering the Australian market, which will soon have its own covered bond law.

Though the covered market was quiet on Friday, market participants can look back on highly successful week in which almost Eu7bn in euro benchmarks was issued. After faltering supply in April UniCredit analysts report that covered bonds are on track for another record month. Issuance thus far in May is almost Eu20bn, less than Eu2bn short of the record total supply for that month.

On Thursday, Nordea took advantage of the flight to quality bid, scarcity of short end Scandinavian supply and sizeable bank treasury and central bank interest to launch and price a Eu2bn three year covered bond backed by Finnish prime residential mortgages. Timing and choice of lead played an important role in attracting top quality Asian demand.

UBS made its first appearance in the covered market for over a year on Thursday. The Swiss borrower will price later today a three times oversubscribed Eu1bn five year deal, which a syndicate lead said had achieved the tightest pricing in that maturity outside of Pfandbriefe, since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Scandanvian borrowers have joined their French and German core colleagues to take advantage of a market highly receptive to quality issuance. SpareBank 1 Boligkredit tapped the dollar space on Tuesday, while Nordea Bank Finland priced a well oversubscribed three year euro trade on Thursday. Aktia real estate mortgage bank has mandated banks for a series of investor meetings beginning in early June.