Norway

The covered bond primary market has opened strongly with a trio of top tier names from core jurisdictions collectively raising around €4.5bn on comfortably oversubscribed books. A further seven deals have been mandated for issuance in the near future. This impressive showing is to be expected given liquidity is technically strong. Yet big challenges lie ahead, specifically for peripheral markets — where borrowers remain shut out.

The ECB’s unprecedented refinancing operation may hit covered bond supply at the short-end of the curve, but medium and long-term issuance — the mainstay of the covered bond market — could benefit from greater confidence in banks’ health, bankers told The Cover.

Euro benchmark supply will drop in 2012, covered bond analysts predict, despite the product having become the cornerstone of bank funding. Rarely have analysts’ expectations diverged so far, with issuance estimates ranging from €120bn-€190bn.

Markets stabilised on Tuesday morning following S&P’s announcement that it may cut sovereign ratings across the eurozone, ending three days of sovereign tightening. Overall the tone remains constructive, according to covered bond traders, with better buying in French and peripheral covered bonds. But with only a couple of weeks of trading to go before year end, and covered bond spreads not following sovereigns tighter, issuers are still most likely to wait for an opportunity in January.

Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt plumbed the safe haven bid for Norwegian assets, braving turbulent markets to issue a €1bn five year, which was priced at the tight end of guidance with a modest new issue premium.

Peripheral covered bonds tightened against government debt on Monday, undoing sovereign outperformance following last Thursday’s rally. Bid offer spreads continued to widen across the board as participants remain cautious ahead of purchase programme details.

A stronger than normal bid from Nordic investors helped Finland’s Sampo Housing Loan Bank to sell a no grow €1bn five year covered bond, its second benchmark this year, on Wednesday.

Convincing 136 accounts from 19 countries to participate in a €2bn benchmark, DnB Nor brought the transaction many syndicate officials had been waiting for.

Finland’s Sampo Housing Loan Bank launched a five year deal on Wednesday, three weeks after it finished a European roadshow. The deal attracted a wide range of accounts and looks assured of success, boding well for other smaller bank issuance.

DnB Nor proved jumbo transactions with minimal premia were possible on Tuesday, launching a well received five year trade expected to be €2bn in size. Credit Suisse meanwhile paid up handsomely for a seven year transaction not helped by the difficult tenor.

Caisse de Refinancement de l'Habitat is poised to price a €1.4bn 12-year deal at the tight end of mid-swaps plus 120bp-125bp spread guidance. With a book in the region of €1.6bn, supported by robust Nordic, German and UK demand, the deal is a strong endorsement of the French banking system. Though there is doubt over whether other French issuers will follow its lead, the market is clearly there for the right name at the right price — as today’s DNB Nor Boligkreditt’s mandate announcement illustrated.

Secondary markets broadly remain under pressure, though there are cracks of light appearing here and there. The long end of the French market seems to be stabilising, there have been some buyers of Cédulas and there is still a smattering of interest in selective Scandinavian names. But the outlook remains dim and relative value against other sectors suggests covered bonds are expensive.