Nordics

A UK based covered bond investor spoke to The Cover about the sovereign crisis. He believes the primary market should still be able to function, though the group of issuers capable of doing a deal will be much smaller. Greece is beyond hope, but he says the rest of Europe can still be saved.

Market participants were not swayed by a moderate rally in sovereign CDS and senior financials on Wednesday morning, preferring to hold out for a more stable backdrop. But with an ECB meeting in Frankfurt on Thursday and the Euromoney covered bond conference and ECBC plenary taking place on 14-15 September, opportunities for issuance might be limited to early next week.

Market conditions improved on Tuesday, though issuance remained elusive as issuers and investors waited to determine whether the relief would hold. Meanwhile Austrian, Norwegian, UK and French issuers are lining up.

Syndicate officials tried to remain positive in the face of worsening market conditions on Monday. After a strong post-summer reopening, market participants had hoped a full pipeline would carry momentum into this week. The primary market remained closed, however, and the secondary market is still hamstrung due to a lack of liquidity. Nevertheless, Raiffeisen Landesbank Steiermark has finished roadshowing and has mandated banks for a trade, while Norway’s Terra Boligkreditt will end its pre-deal investor meetings on Wednesday. Both benefit from strong credit fundamentals and relative rarity, and with investors keen to diversify into high quality paper hopes for issuance later in the week remain high.

Covered bond traders said the secondary market remained inactive on Monday with liquidity still seriously lacking. Most bonds issued since the market reopened have struggled to perform, while the weight of €20bn of supply was pushing spreads on outstanding bonds wider, they said.

The surge in covered bond issuance continued on Wednesday, with a trio of benchmarks taking issuance to more than €14bn since the market reopened in the middle of last week. Some 12 trades from 10 jurisdictions have been launched since then.

French, UK, Swedish and Austrian issuers launched deals across the covered bond curve on Tuesday, as the market backdrop continued to improve. Caisse de Refinancement de l'Habitat and Austria’s Erste tapped the longer end (see separate story), while Barclays Capital and Swedbank launched three and four year trades respectively.

Despite a meeting of the world’s central bankers at Jackson Hole Nordea Bank Finland kept the primary market alive on Friday, launching a successful €1.5bn five year deal. Syndicate officials welcomed three consecutive days of primary supply, though market conditions have deteriorated since a trio of well received benchmark trades on Thursday. Secondary liquidity still leaves much to be desired, they said, and has not been helped by the attractive premiums offered by the latest issues.

ING on Wednesday confounded predictions that a German or Nordic name would end almost two months of inactivity in the covered bond market. The borrower launched a bold €1.75bn 10 year transaction, which offered investors a generous 15bp concession over its outstanding curve, providing the market with an indicator of the higher premiums now needed to print deals.

Covered bond traders and syndicates warned against premature optimism during the relative calm at the start of this week, and it turns out those warnings were apt. But syndicate officials have not given up hope of issuance in the next few weeks even though the possible candidates to reopen the market are down to a select few from Germany, the Nordics and the Netherlands — and those with credit lines to US investors are now even better placed.

The pipeline for issuance continued to build on Thursday, with Austrian, Nordic, and French borrowers scheduling investor meetings ahead of planned transactions. Though all prospective trades are in euros, syndicate officials said it could be a dollar trade that reopens the market.

After a week of severe fluctuations in all market segments, traders said Monday morning was the quietest day in weeks. Market participants are hoping for a modicum of stability to improve the chances of primary supply at the end of the month and several issuers from core jurisdictions are finalising roadshows in order to come to market, syndicate bankers said. But if new issue premiums are at the top end of expectations, they added, it will reshape the secondary curve — and this may deter some names from returning.