Nordics

The concept of liquidity has changed over the course of the financial crisis. Where once it may have been viewed as a free ticket, it is now highly valued — for without liquidity there cannot be a market. Covered bonds are comfortably at the most liquid end of the credit spectrum, but the way they are traded has completely changed since the onset of the financial crisis.

European borrowers backed off from issuance on Wednesday after French government bond spreads reached 16-year wides versus Germany. UniCredit Bank Austria had hoped to bring a deal after investor meetings in Helsinki and Copenhagen on Tuesday, but leads unanimously agreed that market conditions were not suitable and they will wait to see the result of weekend headlines following the EU summit.

Swedish investors continue to jettison their covered bond holdings, according to SEB.

Standards & Poor’s has assigned covered bonds issued from BRFKredit’s Capital Centre B and Capital Centre E preliminary triple-A ratings, on stable outlook. These ratings replace those of Moody’s, which the issuer dropped, due to disagreements over rating methodology.

A stronger than normal bid from Nordic investors helped Finland’s Sampo Housing Loan Bank to sell a no grow €1bn five year covered bond, its second benchmark this year, on Wednesday.

Moody’s has downgraded the mortgage backed covered bonds of two of BRFkredit capital centres, after downgrading the issuer from Baa1 to Baa3 in early July.

Convincing 136 accounts from 19 countries to participate in a €2bn benchmark, DnB Nor brought the transaction many syndicate officials had been waiting for.

Finland’s Sampo Housing Loan Bank launched a five year deal on Wednesday, three weeks after it finished a European roadshow. The deal attracted a wide range of accounts and looks assured of success, boding well for other smaller bank issuance.

DnB Nor proved jumbo transactions with minimal premia were possible on Tuesday, launching a well received five year trade expected to be €2bn in size. Credit Suisse meanwhile paid up handsomely for a seven year transaction not helped by the difficult tenor.

Caisse de Refinancement de l'Habitat is poised to price a €1.4bn 12-year deal at the tight end of mid-swaps plus 120bp-125bp spread guidance. With a book in the region of €1.6bn, supported by robust Nordic, German and UK demand, the deal is a strong endorsement of the French banking system. Though there is doubt over whether other French issuers will follow its lead, the market is clearly there for the right name at the right price — as today’s DNB Nor Boligkreditt’s mandate announcement illustrated.

With the covered bond market waiting for constructive news out of Thursday’s ECB meeting, primary activity on Wednesday was limited to a €200m tap of Crédit Agricole’s 2021s. Syndicates said the tap showed investors were not totally sidelined, but the market — like other asset classes — was in desperate need of a message that would restore confidence and allow new issuance to be absorbed in the secondary market without provoking a sell-off in outstanding bonds.

Secondary markets broadly remain under pressure, though there are cracks of light appearing here and there. The long end of the French market seems to be stabilising, there have been some buyers of Cédulas and there is still a smattering of interest in selective Scandinavian names. But the outlook remains dim and relative value against other sectors suggests covered bonds are expensive.