Germany

Secondary market activity has slowed considerably as banks wind down their balance sheets ahead of the year end. Market making is still happening but flows are skewed to the bid side, with bids so low that few investors are prepared to deal on them.

Caisse de Refinancement de l'Habitat on Wednesday morning presented the ECB with only its second opportunity to make a primary purchase under the central bank's second covered bond purchase programme. Following in the footsteps of Crédit Mutuel Arkéa — the only other issuer to have done a deal qualifying for support in the primary market — CRH launched an extension of an outstanding 10 year trade at the widest level for French paper this year.

ECB purchasing reached €930m on a settlement basis by the end of last week, with traders reporting buying of German, French, and some Spanish paper in the secondary market. The impact of the programme remains limited, however, and there have been calls for the eurosystem central banks to make bonds purchased under the programme available for bilateral repo purposes.

Covered bond participants are anxiously looking to developments in the wider market in the hope that a resolution to the sovereign impasse is found. But, in the event nothing is agreed, contingency plans are now being made. Some syndicate bankers are hoping that the EU summit meeting in Brussels on December 9 will yield progress. Tap issuance is possible, but with the market as it is some bank holders believe there is more sense in remaining short some bonds.

Despite hopes that the result of Spain’s general election would bolster sagging equities and pull in widening government bond yields, market conditions appear prohibitive at the start of a potentially shortened week.

The mortgage backed Pfandbriefe of four German Landesbanks are at risk of losing their triple-A ratings, after Moody’s lowered the senior unsecured ratings of the issuers by up to three notches on Wednesday.

European covered bond markets continue to look in poor shape as the macro sovereign backdrop dramatically deteriorates. This suggests that Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s euro denominated benchmark is likely to remain on hold for the time being. But that should not delay Westpac, which is planning to open books on Thursday afternoon.

The euro covered bond market has begun to show signs of life, a full five trading days after the formal start of the ECB purchase programme. Crédit Mutuel Arkéa will price a rare dual tranche tap later on Wednesday.

While Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia headed to the US on Monday to market debut covered bonds, ANZ has started meeting investors in Europe, after finishing a US roadshow last week.

The covered bond market waited in vain on Tuesday for the start of ECB purchase programme (CBPP.2) buying in the secondary market. Despite moderate sovereign tightening, peripheral covered bond spreads continued to trade well inside government bonds, particularly in Italy where it is increasingly doubtful that issuers will be able to bring benchmark deals against outstanding curves.

News of the ECB’s latest covered bond purchase programme has failed to move secondary spreads, analysts and syndicate officials told The Cover on Monday. Meanwhile the situation in peripheral jurisdictions continues to deteriorate, making the programme’s success all the more contingent upon concrete political resolution in the individual countries, and Europe as a whole.

Activity in the secondary market has been focussed on France where several banks report Street and real money interest – even as the French government bond spread to Germany hit new spread wides. Meanwhile, syndicate officials cast doubt on whether the ECB’s purchase programme will materially benefit Italy and Spain.