Germany

Euro jumbo issuance since August fell by a third compared with last year, but a look at the redemption calendar for this quarter and the first quarter of 2012 shows that funding pressures will not wait for Europe to fix itself. The ECB purchase programme may help some borrowers plug funding holes, but with only €40bn at its disposal, not all issuers will be able to rely on the ECB to refinance assets.

The impact of the ECB’s second purchase programme could be lessened considerably by renewed volatility in the markets. Equity and fixed income indices plummeted on Tuesday morning, wiping out at a stroke the positive reaction seen at the end of last week to the European summit meetings that had attempted to inject some confidence back into markets.

A major covered bond investor talks to The Cover about the ECB’s purchase programme and what could follow. He does not think it will adopt a needs-based approach and suspects that a prospective spread tightening will be short-lived.

Activity has once again shifted into dollars, with European investors paralysed by a lack of detail on the upcoming ECB covered bond purchase programme and a resolution of the sovereign debt crisis. Meanwhile Canadian banks issue dollar deals with ease, and Australia’s big four could be swayed into taking the same route for their respective debuts, said syndicate officials.

Bank Austria has followed BPCE successfully raising €500m with a five year public sector backed covered bond that priced at the tight end of guidance on the back of an exceptionally granular book. The decision to price ahead of next week’s announcement on the purchase programme caught some bankers by surprise. But with significant central bank demand in the book, it is doubtful whether there would have been much to gain from postponing.

Market indices rallied on Thursday, following the EU’s unveiling of its Grand Plan to remedy the eurozone’s woes. BPCE was quick to capitalise on the upturn, securing nearly four times oversubscription for a minimum €200m tap of its 10 year. Bank Austria also moved swiftly on the positive mood and is taking IOIs for possible pricing this afternoon or Friday. Bank of Montreal showed the strength of US demand on Wednesday, when it attracted $3.75bn of demand for its $2bn three year deal. But the floodgates are unlikely to open fully ahead of November 3 when the ECB will announce details of its purchase programme.

German issuers with US dollar assets in their cover pools may start looking at the US 144A market early next year, following the German Association of Pfandbrief Banks (vdp) first US roadshow in three years.

Stress in bank funding markets, exposure to troubled eurozone sovereign bond markets and moves away from implicit government support have affected the creditworthiness of many global banks. But Standard & Poor’s approach to covered bond ratings means they should remain resilient compared to other agencies.

Any benchmark covered bond deals are unlikely to happen before Wednesday when EU leaders unveil their eurozone rescue plan. The lack of any detail emerging from the EU summit has also kept investors sidelined in the secondary market, with traders reporting very limited flows for core and peripheral paper.

The official announcement on Thursday of a joint venture between Caisse des Depots and La Banque Postale, which have both taken stakes in Dexia Municipal Agency, is credit positive for the issuing entity’s Obligations Foncières and should help maintain their triple-A ratings, bankers said.

European borrowers backed off from issuance on Wednesday after French government bond spreads reached 16-year wides versus Germany. UniCredit Bank Austria had hoped to bring a deal after investor meetings in Helsinki and Copenhagen on Tuesday, but leads unanimously agreed that market conditions were not suitable and they will wait to see the result of weekend headlines following the EU summit.

The underlying tone to the primary and secondary covered bond markets remains broadly supportive. Though the wider credit market is clearly still dealing with considerable uncertainty, for the right name and spread, investor demand is there — as evidenced last week with deals from Hypo Noe and CRH. The time could therefore be ripe for more French, Austrian or German names to step in. But whether the market is ready for the rumoured BBVA deal remains to be seen.