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2019 is likely to be another year where the independent mandate of central bankers comes under pressure from populist politicians in democracies. It is easy for those in the market to sympathise with the quiet technocrats over the loud-mouthed headbangers, but scrutiny is deserved.

Once a darling of emerging markets investors, Turkey flirted with disaster in 2018 when instead of battling out-of-control inflation it followed voter-pleasing policies and plunged into a recession, amid a poisonous combination of political and monetary forces. Although Turkey and its banks have swiftly regained debt market access, its future is clouded by the harsh realities of global economics, write Lewis McLellan and Mariam Meskin.

Risk premia strategies — a growing form of quantitative passive investing — performed poorly in 2018, with many flagship funds and strategies under investor scrutiny. Experts in the space have been soul searching and are looking for a reprieve in 2019. Costas Mourselas reports.

The Middle East has been fuelling business in the CEEMEA bond and loan markets for the last 12 months. That looks set to persist in 2019, when the region’s big hitters are expected to come with multi-billion dollar financing needs to both markets. Michael Turner and Francesca Young report.

Battling a host of problems — local and global — Latin American bond markets suffered a torrid 2018. Many issuers stayed away, high yielders struggled to find financing and investors booked losses. With more volatility expected, political developments in LatAm’s three largest economies could make or break the region’s bond markets in 2019. Oliver West reports.

Volatility has returned to equity capital markets, derailing indices and making new capital raising much more difficult. ECM deals can still offer investors a way to outperform, but when markets are tough, their risk appetite shrivels. Many political shocks could hurt in 2019, starting with Brexit and a global trade war. But overshadowing all this is the fear that a more profound pessimism has returned to stalk equity markets, after their long upward decade. Sam Kerr reports.

A host of emerging market opportunities are set to be presented to equity investors in 2019 with Kazakhstan likely to lead the way with a number of highly anticipated listings. Sam Kerr reports.

Frenetic bond issuance at the start of the year smashed records for volumes in CEEMEA as borrowers sought to get ahead of rising US rates. But although the US’s hiking trajectory was the main concern at the start of the year, political spice, currency crises, sanctions and bailouts all combined to beat up EM bond markets in 2018. By Francesca Young and Oliver West

For CEEMEA and Latin American bond issuers, 2018 was not an easy year. To get a good deal done required impeccable timing — to the point of fortune telling; a nimbleness around political landmines in both regions, rising rates and falling currencies; and the courage to make difficult decisions on pricing. Often, the deals offered to issuers were not the ones they were used to. But in some cases, that did not mean they were wrong to print. Picking out the Deals of the Year for 2018 was not a straightforwardtask for GlobalCapital’s editorial team. But after much deliberation, the below were chosen, representing those market triumphs that stood out in a year of crises.

The US slammed the international bond market shut to Russian borrowers in April by imposing sharp sanctions on a few private companies. Seven months later Gazprom sold a euro bond, but it is a unique credit. Investors are still terrified of another kicking from Western authorities. Francesca Young speaks to Russian borrowers about how they are planning their funding in uncertain times.

Conditions have rarely been sweeter for European borrowers seeking to diversify their funding sources. Europe’s dominant private debt markets for investment grade issuers, the US private placement market and the Schuldschein, are thriving, and agents in both are on the hunt for new borrowers. Their search will better if, as expected, public bond markets have a tough 2019. Silas Brown reports.

Mergers and acquisitions in Europe are back. But what loans bankers have long hoped would be great news for their businesses is in most cases turning out to be a far less lucrative development, as companies increasingly turn to smaller banking groups to finance their acquisition plans. By Michael Turner.