Free content

Covered bond funders will have to weave their way through tight senior unsecured and wide SSA spreads in 2026 if they are to refinance the wave of redemptions that awaits them. One big question for the year ahead, discovers Frank Jackman, is whether issuers will be tempted to pay up for duration

Issuers had it almost all their own way in the European FIG market in 2025. Investor appetite for credit far outstripped supply, causing spreads to tighten along with the average new issue premium on syndicated benchmark-sized deals. Flynn Nicholls reports on the dynamics that shaped the primary market

The European FIG market rode through 2025 on high demand for credit, providing bank issuers, large and small, with extremely advantageous funding conditions. Although investors have also benefitted from strong secondary market performance, as Atanas Dinov reports, that equilibrium may change in 2026, with anticipation mounting that spreads will widen

One of the key numbers for the SSA bond market is the EU’s borrowing need, published twice a year. The borrower has become one of the largest in the market, issuing €160bn of bonds in 2025, with a similar amount expected in 2026. It anticipates €700bn of funding needs between 2025 and 2030 in support of the various programmes it funds, including for NextGenerationEU. Now it has a new one: a €150bn instrument, which will disburse money to member states for defence in 2026. Siegfried Ruhl (pictured), hors classe adviser to the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Budget, and Balazs Ujvari, Commission spokesperson for budget and administration, spoke to GlobalCapital’s Ralph Sinclair about the issuer’s path ahead in the bond market.

Public sector bond issuers navigated what turned out to be a sometimes volatile year in 2025 with aplomb. Many frontloaded issuance to derisk large borrowing programmes which stood them in good stead when choppier markets developed in response to US tariff policy and French political upheaval over its deficit, to name but two influences. Funding requirements among supranationals and agencies may prove little changed for the year ahead, but a host of factors are already visible that will influence how this group of borrowers approaches the bond market in 2026. Chief among them is the tightness of spreads to government bonds but there are others: further elevated government borrowing to fund defence and possibly even a new entrant to the market to raise money for that purpose; the evolving market for ESG investment; digitalisation of the bond market; and the rotation out of US Treasury holdings by international investors. GlobalCapital gathered a number of the SSA market’s key issuers in London in November to discuss how they will set about meeting these challenges.

The public sector bond market digested more than $900bn of benchmark syndications in the first 10 months of 2025, close to the amount raised the previous year. New issue premiums varied by currency, with the biggest annual change in the euro market, writes Sarah Ainsworth

US tariffs, greater sovereign borrowing needs and political upheaval proved no barrier to SSA issuers raising a large amount of funding in 2025, and getting it done early, writes Addison Gong. But those challenges were just a taster for what lies in store for 2026 when the market is likely to become even more crowded

The CEEMEA primary bond market in 2025 shattered the record for bond issuance by some distance. Investors flocked to buy ahead of US interest rate cuts, meaning the market was open to just about every issuer. It is hard to find too many deals that were not a success, making this the pick of a very large crop

Investment grade companies demonstrated just how much liquidity was sloshing around in the euro, dollar, sterling and Swiss franc markets with a string of large deals. But these bonds did not just stand out for the amount issued. Rather, they showed that there is not always a trade-off to be made between size and price

With a relentless flow of cash into credit markets this year, almost every borrower could be said to have done well. But some issuers stood out for their ability to establish new footholds in certain markets that have since paved the way for peers

The sovereign, supranational and agency bond market in 2025 featured a number of innovative debuts, bringing new issuers to this most venerable of asset classes. Meanwhile, some of its biggest names priced stellar deals, breaking records and pioneering new formats even in volatile markets

The most senior debt capital markets bankers across the Street appear to be an optimistic bunch heading into 2026. In GlobalCapital’s survey of the heads of DCM, Ralph Sinclair discovers upbeat expectations for volumes, pay and hiring and asks how tech is reforming the business