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Santander's popular dual tranche deal could spur others to follow, but flood of trades is unlikely
Increased residential lending demand could help support issuance
Issuance window is open and conditions are great but issuers stand pat
After a poor start to 2025, a strong second quarter helped lagging covered supply get back on track
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Cheap central bank financing is on the way out, giving rise to hopes of a busy autumn -
If the European Central Bank is serious about promoting banking sector consolidation, it must wean issuers off the Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operation
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The European Central Bank’s Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operation may never disappear, but the central bank will find it difficult to maintain record-breaking interest rates on its loans as the economy recovers from the pandemic. As the terms of the liquidity scheme surely begin to tighten, issuers will have a greater incentive to repay TLTROs and switch to market funding.
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The volume of retained covered bond issuance used for European Central Bank repo purposes exceeds distributed by many times in several countries. While this repo has provided a welcome boost to bank profits, it has come at the expense of long-term banking sector stability.
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Private placements are expected to make up the bulk of Swedish covered bond paper throughout the latter half of 2021 and, with the Nordic summer holiday period coming to end, issuance from the region is expected to kick off ahead of the eurozone.
