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HQLA investors have reallocated away from covered and into SSAs
DekaBank's sub-benchmark success shows investors are there, but issuers are unwilling to follow
Senior funding there for the taking, covered bonds yet to take off — but conditions are great for all
Books bulged in July as investors flocked to the last of the summer deals
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Specialist investors and strong names dominate as issuers stretch out to 15 years
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Unsecured bonds could become more expensive to issue, covered bonds cheaper
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The euro covered bond market shook off a volatile end to 2024 to rebound with a raft of exceptionally popular deals in 2025. Investors appeared eager to pile into euro covered bond books this year, propelling bid-to-cover ratios upwards and new issue premium downwards, writes Frank Jackman
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Covered bond funders will have to weave their way through tight senior unsecured and wide SSA spreads in 2026 if they are to refinance the wave of redemptions that awaits them. One big question for the year ahead, discovers Frank Jackman, is whether issuers will be tempted to pay up for duration
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Implementation could push covered spreads closer to govvies and SSAs
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Covered bond redemptions are set to increase by €20bn next year and €30bn in 2027