Currencies

The global covered bond market continues to look strong, with a trio of issuers collectively raising the equivalent of more than €4.5bn, on the back of more than €9bn in demand across two currencies. But whether the market’s euphoria can hold out until the end of this week, however, remains to be seen as doubts are starting to creep back in with Thursday’s Greek liability management cut off date fast approaching.

The covered bond market ended the week in exceptional shape. Société Générale’s €1.5bn seven year benchmark was trading 10bp tighter in the secondary market on Friday, after pricing at 107bp over mid-swaps on Thursday. Though some syndicate bankers said the trade was priced through the issuer’s outstanding curve and had been a strong success, other felt initial guidance had been too wide.

The covered bond market remains extremely well supported, with recent deals all performing well and secondary flows largely one way. Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Toronto-Dominion have mandated for dollar trades. Yorkshire and Coventry Building Societies have left blackout but could turn to sterling. Bankinter has mandated in euros but is biding its time while Cédulas spreads tighten. ING DiBa is expected soon after roadshowing last week.

Société Générale built a €6bn book for its second trade of 2012 on Thursday, pricing a €1.5bn benchmark well inside initial guidance. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse launched only the second dollar trade from a European bank since last September.

A higher than expected take-up from a broader number of banks in the European Central Bank’s second long term refinancing operation has provided a lift to what is already a very well bid covered bond market.

ANZ National built a benchmark sized orderbook for a €250m tap of its inaugural euro covered bond on Tuesday and priced the deal inside its outstanding curve. With some buyers sidelined due to a lack of a legislative framework in New Zealand, the strong reception bodes well for an issuer intending to launch yearly euro trades.

The inaugural public benchmark from Spain’s Bankia boasted the highest spread and shortest tenor of any deal this year. It now plans to return with a longer dated trade, building on the strong demand it found for Wednesday’s deal.

Deutsche Bank pulled in more than €2bn of orders for the third German Pfandbrief of 2012. Leads priced the €500m no grow trade at 22bp on Wednesday, making it the tightest trade of the year so far, and the bond tightened further in the secondary market on Thursday.

The tightest and widest transactions of 2012 were priced on Wednesday, with Bankia launching a two year Cédulas at 290bp over mid-swaps, while Deutsche Bank priced a blow-out seven year trade at 22bp over mid-swaps.

Bankia restarted primary supply on Wednesday, opening books on a two year €500m trade that could easily have been increased on the back of strong demand, according to syndicate leads. Though the settlement date means the bonds cannot be used in the second Long Term Refinancing Operation, the deal still attracted interest from across the Eurozone. As the lowest rated issuer to tap the covered bond market this year, Bankia’s success could prompt other lower tier names to follow.

Nykredit will begin the first Danish auction of 2012 later this month, selling an estimated Dkr115bn (€15.4bn) between February 27 and March 12. The traditional one year adjustable rate mortgage bonds will make up the bulk of the auction, though with the low yield environment borrowers have moved along the curve.

Market sentiment has begun to weaken while the Greek sovereign’s future remains uncertain. The mood has hurt the secondary performance of recent trades across several asset classes, including Barclays’ €2bn five year covered bond which was launched on Wednesday.