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Turbulent market conditions of the Middle East war have pushed bond issuers and investors to try new things
A swift response is tempting, but lenders should avoid kneejerk reaction
Talk of de-dollarisation has evaporated. The dollar market remains the undisputed king of financing
Inflation caused by war threatens budding recovery in commercial real estate
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Investors have been scrambling to get their hands on a piece of India after the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) landslide victory in the recent elections brought the country’s moribund economy much closer to a new lease of life. But investors would be prudent to take one step back from the Modi-mania and not lose sight of fundamentals - and downside risk. -
The European Central Bank moved its deposit rate into negative territory on Thursday. Such a move is unlikely to boost lending to the real economy, and could come with unintended consequences for the money markets.
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The Conservatives have joined Labour and the Liberal Democrats in promising to boost the Scottish government’s tax-raising powers if voters decide to stay in the UK at September’s independence referendum. But the major three parties should go one step further and add serious debt raising powers to the deal — rather than the piddling £2.2bn offered so far.
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Central and Eastern Europe has benefited from a rally over the last few months, as funds have rotated out of Russia and into that region. But with tensions seemingly subsiding in eastern Ukraine and bankers eagerly expecting a return of Russian bond issues before the end of the year, the flows may start to reverse. The revival of Russian business could come at the expense of appetite for the CEE.
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Turkey has endured a year of turmoil since the Gezi Park protests and a prolonged emerging market sell-off derailed its economic boom. But even as protesters and police mark the anniversary with another splash of teargas, Halkbank’s result last week shows Turkey’s banks have a prime opportunity to return to the bond market and underscore the country’s strong recovery. Banks thinking of waiting for the third quarter might do well to come now.
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Dubai should push on with its plan to create a central Shariah board. Although the emirate has made good progress in striving to become the self-styled “centre for the Islamic economy”, the time is ripe for a breakthrough that would create a lasting legacy.
