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Turbulent market conditions of the Middle East war have pushed bond issuers and investors to try new things
A swift response is tempting, but lenders should avoid kneejerk reaction
Talk of de-dollarisation has evaporated. The dollar market remains the undisputed king of financing
Inflation caused by war threatens budding recovery in commercial real estate
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The inconvenient truth about credit ratings is that they are one of the least bad options for measuring credit risk. Basel’s latest proposal to write the agencies out of regulation will simply introduce new problems.
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If you take a look at the volumes of bank capital sold in 2014 it’s hard not be impressed. Looking at volumes alone, you’d think the year had been an unqualified success. But bank treasurers should learn a few lessons ahead of January.
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Even if you have never sailed a boat through a storm, avoiding a potential one is the obvious choice. But investors in the European bond markets have been sailing into storms they knew were coming all year.
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Looking for a present for the bond geek in your life? Maybe YOU are the bond geek in someone else’s life. Either way, a copy of Chris O’Malley’s history of the bond market, Bonds Without Borders: A History of the Eurobond Market, is a worthy addition to the Christmas stocking.
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Dollar issuance from sovereign, supranational and agency borrowers is set to be a big theme next year as a negative euro/dollar basis swap, plus low rates in euros, encourages euro-funders to look across the Atlantic. But market participants should be prepared for a rough ride in a market which will remain vulnerable to volatility.
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Securitization has come a long way in the past two years, not least in the minds of regulators. But the industry needs to start managing expectations. It is not going to solve Europe's problems on its own.