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Turbulent market conditions of the Middle East war have pushed bond issuers and investors to try new things
A swift response is tempting, but lenders should avoid kneejerk reaction
Talk of de-dollarisation has evaporated. The dollar market remains the undisputed king of financing
Inflation caused by war threatens budding recovery in commercial real estate
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Bankers are predicting a strong return of Russian bond issuance from non-sanctioned credits in 2016. But these issuers would be foolish to wait until next year when there is an issuance window open now.
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Commentary around the one year anniversary of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect seems pretty unanimous in suggesting the scheme has failed to achieve its goals. However, if one looks at past Chinese experiments in capital account liberalisation, the Stock Connect’s early performance should neither surprise nor disappoint.
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International syndicated lending to Russia has been in the deep freeze for the last 12 months, with only a handful of safe, commodity-backed loans arranged. The European Council will review its sanctions on Russia in a few weeks, but don’t expect the market to thaw.
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The cost of pre-funding may be high, with few options to store cash safely at anything other than super low yields. But with an exceptionally busy January for public sector borrowers looming, the cost of waiting could be even higher.
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The Total Loss Absorbing Capacity rule, years in the making, is finished. But no one has any idea how it will actually work.
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Middle East multilateral, Gulf Investments Corp (GIC) decided against proceeding with a dollar bond after finishing a roadshow. Liquidity in the region is falling, rating downgrades are looming and supply is likely to increase. Bankers should get used to borrowers balking at the final step — and not worrying about it.