Central America

Fitch downgraded Mexican broadcaster TV Azteca from C to restricted default (RD) on Friday after the 30 day grace period expired on a missed coupon payment. The rating agency is forecasting recoveries for bondholders in the 31%-50% range.

Covid-19 has made combining market-friendly economic policy with retaining popular support even trickier than usual for Latin America's politicians. In turn, it has become harder for bondholders to read the political tea leaves when weighing up where their money is best parked. For instance, investors who once loved Jair Bolsonaro's Brazil are now high-tailing it to other markets, including El Salvador, where another populist has just won power. In a busy year for LatAm elections, and with the pandemic still raging, allocating capital in the region's bond markets will be trickier than usual.

Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday that it would continue to provide international ratings and research on Mexican government-owned oil giant Pemex even after the issuer said it was dispensing with the agency’s services. Previously, Mexican president Andrés Manual López Obrador had publicly criticised Fitch’s negative rating actions on Pemex, which accounts for nearly 10% of investor holdings of EM corporate bonds.

International bonds issued by El Salvador and Costa Rica are proving to be a sweet spot for EM investors, with the notes extending their rally this week as both countries look closer than ever to signing IMF programmes. But there are risks to the positive credit narratives driving the performance of both sovereigns, analysts warned.

El Salvador’s bonds retained recent gains on Thursday as EM’s riskiest credits proved resilient to the week’s US Treasury sell-off, with bondholders hoping that Sunday’s mid-term elections will give president Nayib Bukele the political capital he requires to implement an IMF programme.

Mexican broadcaster TV Azteca, which missed a coupon payment on its international bond earlier this month amid plans for a 'debt reorganisation', surprised analysts by posting strong fourth quarter results this week.

América Móvil, the Mexican telecommunications company controlled by Carlos Slim, had to cheapen the terms of its €2.2bn bond exchangeable into shares in Dutch telco KPN, but still achieved a remarkably cheap refinancing of a non-core stake.

Petrochemicals producer Alpek, which is owned by major Mexican conglomerate Grupo Alfa, will buy back almost half of its $650m of 4.5% 2022s after wrapping a tender offer on Tuesday.

Better than expected fiscal data from Mexico has led Bank of America analysts to conclude that the country’s fiscal metrics “could compare favourably to peers for longer” and upgrade their recommendation on the sovereign’s external debt from underweight to market weight.

Mexico petrochemical company Alpek could announce a new 10 year note as soon as Thursday, and investors expect the issuer to receive strong demand amid a quiet Latin America primary market.

Mexican petrochemicals producer Alpek, which lost one of its investment grade ratings for the first time last September, was holding calls with fixed income investors this week ahead of a proposed liability management exercise that would push its average debt maturity from 4.4 years to seven years.

Mexican broadcaster TV Azteca’s bonds fell sharply in secondary markets this week after the company missed a coupon payment on its international bonds. But the decision to stay current on, and prepay, a domestic bond left some bondholders recalling previous battles with Ricardo Salinas Pliego, Mexico’s third richest man and the owner of the broadcaster.