TLTRO could upset French covered supply expectations

Net covered bond supply from France is likely to fall in 2019, which should support spreads. However, French banks were among the most active users of the the European Central Bank's Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO), which, as it starts to mature, will need to be refinanced - and the covered bond market could be poised to provide some of that funding.

  • By Bill Thornhill
  • 05 Dec 2018

Gross covered bond supply is expected to amount to almost €26bn based on an average of seven research analysts’ forecasts. At the top end of the range is Barclays with an estimate of €30bn, and at the bottom end is Société Générale with a forecast of €23bn.

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Bookrunners of Global Covered Bonds

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 HSBC 13,951.26 77 5.55%
2 UniCredit 12,869.58 96 5.12%
3 Natixis 11,652.77 67 4.63%
4 UBS 11,458.20 62 4.56%
5 LBBW 11,285.83 74 4.49%

Bookrunners of Global FIG

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 JPMorgan 87,420.99 365 6.18%
2 Citi 78,905.88 424 5.58%
3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 78,235.89 324 5.53%
4 Goldman Sachs 72,613.81 636 5.13%
5 Morgan Stanley 72,406.38 414 5.12%

Bookrunners of Dollar Denominated FIG

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 JPMorgan 70,642.78 252 11.09%
2 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 64,871.97 271 10.19%
3 Citi 61,723.62 322 9.69%
4 Morgan Stanley 54,569.85 313 8.57%
5 Goldman Sachs 54,299.46 565 8.53%

Bookrunners of Euro Denominated Covered Bond Above €500m

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 Natixis 8,357.33 33 7.02%
2 Commerzbank Group 6,550.39 26 5.51%
3 Deutsche Bank 6,535.71 22 5.49%
4 UniCredit 6,513.66 27 5.47%
5 LBBW 6,441.23 28 5.41%

Global FIG Revenue

Rank Lead Manager Amount $m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • 02 May 2016
1 Morgan Stanley 365.83 497 7.62%
2 JPMorgan 332.66 618 6.92%
3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 299.89 590 6.24%
4 Goldman Sachs 276.71 375 5.76%
5 Citi 264.54 592 5.51%

Bookrunners of European Subordinated FIG

Rank Lead Manager Amount €m No of issues Share %
  • Last updated
  • Today
1 HSBC 7,765.93 22 11.94%
2 BNP Paribas 5,338.58 23 8.21%
3 Barclays 5,124.61 20 7.88%
4 Credit Suisse 4,520.44 16 6.95%
5 UBS 3,976.00 19 6.11%