Next year’s SSA bond issuance volumes may appear daunting at first glance.
In the European government bond sector, some banks are forecasting nearly €1.5tr of issuance. Across supranationals, sub-sovereigns and agencies predictions are heading towards the €750bn mark in core currencies alone.
That is 5% more supply in 2026 than than this year but heavy redemptions, in particular of govvies, means that net issuance, even after adjusting for the European Central Bank’s quantitative tightening programme, will be below this year’s record issuance level.
There is a broad sense of optimism in the market that the amount of cash in the asset class should be more than enough to absorb the supply, not to mention further inflows to fixed income in general — one of the key themes of 2025 — and the cheapening of government bonds that will draw yet more investors.
The thing to worry about is the management of all that issuance — never mind the size, feel the quality.
Market upsets can occur at any time, especially with such an unpredictable US president in power as this year's tariff tear-up made clear. The man has literally bulldozed the White House and that is one of the least disruptive things he did all year.
Therefore, catering to shifting investor demand as the year goes on, picking the right maturity, paying the right price and doing so in the right issuance window will be key to maintaining an orderly market in which every issuer raises what it needs efficiently.
It is not about finding the demand, but about meeting it with strategy, conviction, connection, and flexibility — and maybe a bit of luck.