A former Pakistani military commander and ambassador to the US has told Emerging Markets that a power-sharing deal between President Pervez Musharraf and exiled Pakistan People’s Party leader Benazir Bhutto should be workable.
Jehangir Karamat, Musharraf’s predecessor as chief of army staff, said he anticipated a possible face-saving deal that would allow Musharraf to run again for the presidency in uniform, then relinquish his military role after the election.
“There should be no significant weakening of the President’s position, because he has the support of the military,” said Karamat, who was appointed by Musharraf as ambassador in Washington from 2004 to 2006.
Karamat said that a pact between Musharraf and Bhutto could be crucial to “sustain economic growth, move towards good governance, and above all for the struggle against extremists and terrorists.”
Ahsan Chishty, economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Karachi, agreed that “a conclusive arrangement is likely to buoy investor/consumer confidence.” But he warned that a failure to reach a deal could lead Musharraf to declare a state of emergency, in which case “the near term downside risks to the economy would likely increase.”
Karamat noted that judicial obstruction could be another possible trigger for a state of emergency, given the serious governance and security issues at stake.
“There are so many legal issues that have been raised, and the most critical one is the legality of the President as a candidate while he is still in uniform. A decision that bars him from contesting could lead to a consideration of drastic options,” said Karamat.
The retired general acknowledged that the US administration would react negatively to a state of emergency. He also expressed concern that American incursions into Pakistan in “hot pursuit” of insurgents from Afghanistan could complicate the Pakistani government’s own efforts to pacify its turbulent frontier. There was controversy earlier this week when US artillery was alleged to have bombarded targets inside Pakistan without prior authorization from Islamabad.
“These [US moves] are meant to deter insurgents and prevent any big terrorist event. They are also meant to spur counter-terrorism activity, but the impact of US action would be to undermine the government’s position and motivate terrorists and insurgents,” Karamat warned.
He called on the US administration to make a greater effort to support the Pakistani government’s work countering extremism, rather than focusing on “the immediate tactical situation,” which “creates a trust deficit.”
“Right now the need is to take a long view of the situation. The US, Afghanistan and India all should be supportive of Pakistan’s struggle against the threat to its stability.”