Boost to covered bond credit may not translate into higher ratings

The ratings of covered bonds programmes could withstand a downgrade of the issuer’s rating by two notches on average, up from one notch in mid-March, said Fitch on Monday. But that analysis follows a Moody’s announcement in which it placed 81 European banks on negative outlook due to “systemic support for unsecured creditors being increasingly at risk” following the implementation of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD). The upshot is that an improved covered bond rating cushion may prove to have little effect on covered bond ratings as issuer ratings are more likely to be downgraded.