Covered Bonds

Covered bond issuers using programmes containing a special purpose vehicle (SPV) have more guidance on the treatment of bad loans and protect bondholders further compared with those using integrated templates, Fitch said this week when assessing the risk coronavirus era mortgage payment holidays pose to the asset class.

The transposition of the covered bond directive into national legislative frameworks is expected to have been completed by all member states within the next six months. But the clock is ticking, and a decision on whether to postpone implementation will be discussed in September.

After reaching a provisional agreement with member states, the European Commission is expected to open a consultation to amend the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) for banks during the fourth quarter. The revision is expected to improve the efficiency of covered bond funding as issuers will now be able to count the same 30 day liquidity held within their covered bond programme towards the LCR too.

The primary market for covered bonds with environmental, social or governance (ESG) purposes has been exceptionally strong this year, and with the European Union’s Taxonomy regulation recently coming into force and strong execution happening even in difficult market conditions, there are high hopes that issuance will scale new heights.

A prospective improvement in the European Central Bank’s deposit tiering facility mitigating the punitive impact of negative rates should be bad for covered bonds, 95% of which are negative-yielding. However, the unprecedented scale of reserves held on deposit with the central bank implies that many key investors will still be looking for anything that pays more than its deposit rate of minus 0.5%.

The outlook for covered bond spreads has become less clear cut following last week’s historic agreement on the EU’s coronavirus recovery fund, according to analysts. But bank traders believe the market is well protected and think that the biggest risk to spreads is if there is a broader credit and equity market sell-off.

Mortgage payment holidays across Europe, offered to help borrowers cope with the economic effects of lockdown, were highest in UK covered bond pools, according to the European Covered Bond Council’s newly updated harmonised transparency template (HTT). But that reflects the ease with which homeowners could apply for the breaks rather than the likelihood of those loans turning into bad ones.

ANZ has altered the pre-maturity test of the hard bullet transactions in its covered bond programme, by doubling the time the covered bond guarantor has to sell assets. The "investor-friendly" update, which improves rating stability, follows ANZ’s recent downgrade and could be of interest to other issuers in a similar situation.

Tight trading levels will make covered bonds an attractive asset class for statement trades and issuers outside of the euro area, but market participants say that this is unlikely to be enough to lift overall supply volumes out of the doldrums in the second half of 2020.

Surging redemptions and aggressive buying by the ECB — which is also offering issuers a cheaper funding alternative — mean a reduced supply outlook for the covered bond market and, therefore, ever tighter spreads. But higher yielding, safer alternative investments are on the horizon, meaning the asset class may soon lose its allure.

Deutsche Bank has taken advantage of the addition of more collateral to its Pfandbrief mortgage pool following the merger with the former Postbank entity to issue more than €2bn of retained covered bonds.

The Swiss franc market is having a busy year, with a strong showing from corporate and SSA issuers helping the market to its highest year to date volume since 2015, according to Dealogic.