Turkey

Rating: Ba1/BBB-

After a three month hiatus, an attempted coup and a sovereign downgrade, Turkish credit is back in the market with three bank trades and two mandates this week alone. But while the sovereign printed a successful $1.5bn last Friday, investor fatigue is translating into lacklustre trades, even though premiums are up.

Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi (Vakifbank) added to the recent flood of Turkish supply on Thursday, emerging with initial price thoughts for a new five year dollar bond.

Turk Eximbank became the third Turkish borrower to tap the dollar market in less than a week on Tuesday, raising $500m of seven year funding.

The CEEMEA bond market exploded into life this week in what will be one of the busiest of the year. Saudi Arabia is leading the action with its much-anticipated bond but Turkey made an impressive comeback with four of its banks in the market following Friday’s sovereign trade. Further supply from Poland, Russia, the Middle East and Africa is adding plenty of diversity for investors.

Primary bond markets were awash with Turkish bank deals on Tuesday as Turk Eximbank, Sekerbank and Kuveyt Turk added to Isbank’s Monday mandate. With books slow to build and Turkey recently losing its investment grade status, lead managers believe new issue premiums will need to offer a reason to invest.

Turkey shrugged of its second downgrade to junk on Friday to print a $1.5bn reopening of its 2026s. And if a sovereign bond was not proof enough that it is capital markets business as usual for the country, state-owned Turkiye Is Bankasi AS (Isbank) was out with a long five year on Monday morning.

Ojer Telekomunikasyon (Otas), the majority owner of Turk Telekom, failed to make a $290m payment on a $4.75bn loan which was signed in September 2013, according to a news report on Wednesday. But two bankers were quick to say that Otas's fate was not indicative of all Turkish borrowers.

Terrorism, a military coup attempt, and a sovereign downgrade have failed to deter dedicated EM investment in Turkey, but deteriorating growth prospects and increasing nationalism, which could further strain relations with Europe, may threaten staying power in the long run, say economists.

Turkey’s Yapi Kredi has completed its loan refinancing, bringing in $1.1bn in dollars and euros, in a deal where the margins increased just last week after the bank was downgraded.

Turkish funding officials are hopeful covered bond supply will improve in 2017 as new debut names surface and deals price tighter than the sovereign.

Turkey’s spreads have not recovered almost a week after Moody’s junked its credit rating, but bankers insist the sovereign and other Turkish borrowers will have access to the capital markets once stability has returned, even if borrowing costs rocket. Virginia Furness reports.