Sweden

Deutsche Bank brought the covered bond market to the brink of sub-Euribor pricing on Friday, issuing a €750m eight year mortgage Pfandbrief just a single basis point above mid-swaps. With the secondary squeeze grinding onwards syndicate bankers said it was only a matter of time until the Euribor barrier was broken.

Covered bond issuers proved reluctant to follow ING’s lead and launch trades on Tuesday, as activity shifted to the senior market. But given the strong reception for secured issuance syndicate bankers remain confident of supply later in the week.

Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt on Monday returned to the euro market for the first time since January. The rare borrower priced a five 1/2 year benchmark many times cheaper than where it sold a longer trade at the start of the year, exemplifying the sustained tightening in core covered spreads.

The covered bond market is gearing up to restart next week, said syndicate bankers, who expect at least two benchmark trades to hit the screens. German and Scandinavian borrowers are tipped as the most likely candidates to take advantage of squeezed secondary levels. But with no end to spread contraction in sight, the urge to wait and watch levels grind tighter could cause some borrowers to hold off.

Secondary covered bonds spreads are grinding tighter as buyers faced with negative yields in the sovereign market drive short dated covered yields towards zero. While core jurisdictions wallow in a sea of demand, investors are still averse to peripheral paper, but the wide spread gap could cause Spanish and Italian spreads to bounce back, said bankers.

Sweden’s regulator wants to alter how issuers value cover pool assets and introduce regular collateral stress tests.

Swedish banks head a group of possible covered bond issuers, despite resurgent volatility. The Swedes have largely stayed away from the euro market so far this year, opting instead to rely on domestic demand. But analysts still expect the need for diversification and name recognition among Swedish banks to yield euro benchmarks.

Länsförsäkringar Hypotek became the first Nordic issuer to tap the Swiss franc market in covered bond format this year when it priced a Sfr175m seven year note on Thursday. However, with pricing still not meeting larger Nordic financials’ targets, market participants do not expect a flurry of covered bond supply out of the region to follow.

Despite the holiday shortened week, activity in the secondary covered bond market has been relatively good. Though not all houses attest to seeing flows, some banks have seen quite a lot. German and Scandinavian markets are very well supported, the UK has performed very well, France is mixed and Spain is offered.

Germany’s Helaba broke ranks with cautious covered bond issuers on Tuesday to launch the first euro benchmark trade for two weeks. The rare borrower found strong demand for a €1bn public sector backed transaction, and another deal out of core Europe is expected on Wednesday, said syndicate bankers.

Spread tightening has stalled after the first quarter rally, according to DZ analysts, who urged investors to reposition themselves in preparation for spread widening. But with many investors still on holiday, the secondary market has become easier to move with smaller tickets, and traders said it was too early to draw conclusions from an increase in selling.

Sovereign markets have started to stabilise but covered bonds have lagged this move and remain under pressure in the secondary market. The focus has been on Spain but dealers also reported weakness in French covered bonds. In the primary market, issuance hopes remain dim, though bankers think there may be room for a Swedish or Finnish deal.