Spain
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When Banco Popular lost the market's confidence, it ran out of road. Realistic assumptions for recovery rates on bad assets plunged to super-conservative levels. Confidence is the greatest form of solvency, its withdrawal a precursor to insolvency.
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Allied Irish Banks again tightened guidance on its London and Dublin IPO this evening, moving the lower and upper limits to €4.30 to €4.50 a share. -
The difference in trading levels between well capitalised and thinly capitalised banks could increase following Banco Popular’s resolution, making it more difficult for some banks to access the market for subordinated debt.
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Public sector issuers from the eurozone periphery this week drew big books on deals that later tightened in secondary trading, as expectations that Italy could be added to the long list of European elections this year failed to deter investors.
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Many equity market participants thought the wave of big European bank recapitalisations was beginning to wind down, until Santander surprised the market on Wednesday by announcing a €7bn rights issue to recapitalise Banco Popular, its failed domestic rival, after agreeing with European regulators to buy the bank for €1.
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European authorities applied the bank recovery and resolution directive (BRRD) for the first time on Wednesday, placing Spain’s Banco Popular into resolution and approving its sale to Santander. The regulatory process, in which additional tier one (AT1) and tier two bonds were wiped out, has far ranging implications for all market participants working on financial debt.
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With the Credit Suisse rights issue closing this week and the completion of cash calls by Deutsche Bank, UniCredit and Millennium BCP earlier in the year, the latest wave of big bank recapitalisations looked like it was drawing to a close, until dramatic news on Wednesday this week.
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Banco Popular Espanol’s covered bonds barely reacted to credit stress afflicting bonds further down its capital structure ahead of the Spanish lender’s resolution on Tuesday evening. This may have illustrated the effectiveness of the Covered Bond Purchase Programme (CBPP3) but also showed confidence in the asset class, the regulator and the Spanish banking system.
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A pair of eurozone periphery SSAs are tackling opposite ends of the euro curve this week. Italy will launch a 30 year benchmark on Wednesday, while a Spanish agency drew a doubly subscribed book for a three year.
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Banco Popular’s additional tier one (AT1) instruments took another beating on Monday, but the FIG sector has taken courage from the market’s ‘mature’ reaction to the Spanish firm’s evolving problems.
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