Spain

As a proxy for national mortgage markets, LBBW research has taken a closer look European mortgage pool statistics and macro-economic housing market trends. Controversially, it finds that Spanish NPLs have halved in the last two years. In contrast Scandinavia, which is stereotyped as safer than safe, could be heading for trouble as house prices reach 30-year highs.

After the activity and drama of the first part of the week, Ascension Day holidays across most of Europe have lent a quiet tone to the market and a more sedate close is anticipated. But with as many as five deals mandated and a few others rumoured, the pace is likely to pick up next week.

The covered bond primary market exploded into life on Tuesday with new developments on as many as eight deals — of which four or even five, are expected to price during the day. The constructive primary market is largely due to an improvement in underlying market sentiment.

The eurozone sovereign debt crisis has tested the covered bond product like never before. Katie Llanos-Small examines how covered bonds from the periphery have performed during the crisis, and asks what might happen if a eurozone sovereign were to default.

The possibility of a covered bond issuer pricing a deal inside government debt, once considered highly improbable, is now conceivable, say Deutsche Bank and Barclays Capital.

Secondary market activity has been focused on Spain lately with end account selling noted in multi-cédulas and single names which, among others, have included BBVA. Though it’s technically possible for the issuer to bring a deal flat to the underlying government, some bankers think that the funding window may have passed, albeit temporarily.

Spain’s Caja Vital Kutxa brought an inaugural covered bond issue to market on Monday, launching a Eu200m no grow trade through joint leads Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria and Natixis.

Fitch placed 25 classes of multi-issuer cédulas hipotecárias on rating watch negative on Monday, because cédulas hipotecárias issued by Caja de Ahorros del Mediterráneo (CAM) form part of their collateral.

Monday was another quiet day for the covered bond market, though syndicate officials remained confident mandates would come. Market participants stressed that covered bonds were not the only asset class where supply was scarce, and were hopeful that as issuers leave blackout and investors become increasingly cash rich, issuance was only a matter of time.

A new world order in debt markets could soon be ushered in with the first covered bond new issue to be priced through domestic government bonds, investors and bankers were forecasting this week.

Standard & Poor’s on Friday cut public sector backed covered bonds issued by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria from AAA to AA+, on negative outlook, because of its criteria concerning the rating of non-sovereign issuers that exceed the rating the sovereign in the European Monetary Union.

Secondary trading has paused for breath lately, but there are still good pockets of liquidity and interest – specifically for French, UK and to a lesser extent Dutch and Scandinavian deals. The primary market could be due another slow week though a French deal is highly likely, with Société Générale tipped as a probable candidate. UK issuers are looking at the dollar market but there is speculation that one is looking at sterling.