Spain

As eurozone issuers slip into blackout, Australian, Nordic and Canadian names have taken over primary market supply. Westpac is planning trades in euros and Australian dollars, while Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt began taking indications of interest on a seven year trade this Monday morning.

A sizeable new euro bid for UK RMBS emerged this week as Santander UK’s £2.2bn-equivalent Holmes 2012-1 provided the sector’s first issue of the year. The deal raised funding at levels considerably tighter than where it could have issued in covered bonds.

The non-eurozone, no-euro theme in the covered bond market continued on Thursday with the announcement of two debut currency benchmarks, one of which was priced. After the successes of Barclays and Nationwide, National Australia Bank issued its first sterling dea, Lloyds mandated for another sterling deal and UBS is set to bring its first dollar deal.

Covered bond spreads have survived sweeping sovereign downgrades by Standard & Poor’s on Friday. Only French issuer Dexia was reported wider on Monday morning, while the LTRO cash injection has ensured short dated Spanish and French paper remains highly sought after.

The strong Italian and Spanish government debt auction results on Thursday have helped government bond yields tumble, which is good news for issuers. But with cheap financing from the ECB still on offer and covered bond spreads still wide to the government market, primary issuance prospects remain dim.

An official at a Spanish national champion tells The Cover how he expects to fulfil next year’s funding requirement and how his plan compares with this year’s funding. He thinks covered bonds will remain in the liquidity coverage ratio and believes they may even be lifted to level one. Though the RMBS market has not made a comeback, he thinks that it might. Given the more stable secondary performance versus covered bonds, there is a case for it being included in the LCR which could help the market return.

Australia’s big four banks will look to make euro covered bond debuts early in 2012 after two underwhelming forays into the dollar market in November and a privately placed Norwegian krone transaction in early December.

The ECB’s unprecedented refinancing operation may hit covered bond supply at the short-end of the curve, but medium and long-term issuance — the mainstay of the covered bond market — could benefit from greater confidence in banks’ health, bankers told The Cover.

Unless sovereign debt market volatility subsides, it seems likely that publicly placed covered bond financing could remain shut for peripheral issuers in 2012, potentially forcing Spanish and Italian banks into the same category as Portuguese and Greek banks which were unable to access the market at all last year.

Euro benchmark supply will drop in 2012, covered bond analysts predict, despite the product having become the cornerstone of bank funding. Rarely have analysts’ expectations diverged so far, with issuance estimates ranging from €120bn-€190bn.

Moody’s has placed five Spanish covered bond programmes on review for downgrade, after taking the same action on the issuers.

Covered bonds will become an increasingly important bank finance tool in 2012, but their growing stature will not offset a continued downward ratings migration, Moody’s said in its 2012 outlook. The sovereign debt crisis will heap more pressure on issuer ratings and increase refinancing risk, particularly in Italy and Spain but also in core Europe.