Spain

The covered bond market was in good shape on Wednesday as bankers reported renewed interest in peripheral names and the multi-Cédulas sector. The primary market is expected to pick up next week as Scandinavian and German issuers line up.

The recent correction lower in Multi-Cédulas following Standard & Poor’s rating downgrades last week has almost run its course. Though there is a slight risk that month-end portfolio re-balancing will provoke further near-term losses, the longer range picture is fundamentally and technically well supported, bankers told The Cover on Wednesday.

Moody’s announced a positive rating action on CaixaBank on Friday, reflecting declining asset-quality pressures, and an improvement in its earnings. The news comes as its most recent deal has performed well, and amid growing expectations that the worst is behind for the Spanish economy. With the interest rate outlook likely to remain constructive and Cédulas likely to stay technically squeezed, the sector’s performance outlook has not looked this good in years.

Banco Popular Español (BPE) returned to the covered bond market on Tuesday to issue only the third Cédulas of 2014, and the issuer’s largest covered bond in three years. Though by no means the most attractive spread seen this year, the triple digit pick-up enticed a broad audience of real money investors.

A revaluation of Spanish properties that serve as Cédulas collateral would boost transparency, said Fitch on Thursday. More transparency would improve investors’ ability to analyse cover pools and be positive for the market.

Covered bonds are finishing the week tighter with demand spurred after Bunds softened, allowing investors to hit absolute yield targets. Traders reported investors looking to extend maturities, though selective sales of long-dated Norwegian bonds have raised speculation of primary activity next week. Core to peripheral convergence is still broadly evident especially in Ireland, but signs of fatigue have become evident in long dated multi-Cédulas and selective short-dated single name Cédulas.

Spain’s CaixaBank took advantage of strong market conditions on Tuesday to issue the country’s second covered bond of the year. The funding took advantage of scarcity at the long end of the Spanish market, and concerns that the other Spanish national champions are more exposed to emerging market risks.

Spanish banks will be able to issue structured covered bonds under planned changes to corporate finance law, Moody’s said on Monday. The law change would enable issuers to structure dual recourse instruments with conditional pass through mechanisms backed by a wide range of assets issued from special funds.

Covered bond investors switched from short into longer dated covered bonds on Monday, secondary market dealers reported, while second tier peripheral bonds continued to attract interest. However, there was better profit taking in multi-Cédulas, which offer a modest spread over government bonds.

Ratings dominated the covered bond market on Tuesday as several Spanish deals were upgraded, while Austria’s Hypo Alpe-Adria Bank’s covered bonds were downgraded. A number of core issuers are monitoring the market, but are not yet ready to the pay the new issue premiums being demanded.

Investor appetite has shifted to non-national champions, bankers told The Cover on Wednesday, with the window for issuance wide open for lower rated peripheral banks. A Portuguese issuer could step forward soon, one banker said.

Banco Popular Español was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s on Thursday and, though general market sentiment was clearly more risk averse, with Bonos underperforming Bunds, the borrower’s Cédulas was unchanged after recently being better bid. Meanwhile, Italian covered bonds remained well supported, even as renewed Italian political instability caused BTPs to sell off.