Amid continued volatility in energy and utilities names such as Reliance Energy (A3/A), Dynegy (Ba1/BBB), El Paso (Baa2/BBB+), CMS Energy (Ba3/BB) and NRG Energy (Baa3/BBB-), analysts are offering a few names they say are not likely to be subject to the price swings of their peers. Wisconsin Energy (A2/A-), SCANA (A3/A), Southern Company (A3/A), Keyspan (A3/A) and Energy East (Baa2/BBB+) are all relatively stable, because they do not rely so heavily on trading profits, says Carol Levenson, director of research at Gimme Credit, an independent research firm. However, she warns that most are expected to sell assets to avoid rating downgrades, and concedes that few of these names are exceptionally cheap. Names she believes could outperform the sector are Dominion Resources (Baa1/BBB+) andExelon (Baa2/A). Dominion's 6.625% notes of '13 were bid at 204 basis points over Treasuries last Tuesday, while Exelon's 4.75% notes of '11 were 304 basis points over the curve. She also believes that Duke Energy (A1/A+), which does count on trading profits, may benefit from a flight to quality in the sector. Duke's 6.25% notes of '12 were 102 basis points over Treasuries.
June 02, 2002