Napoleon Rodgers, portfolio manager withAlpha Capital Management, says he is going to rotate 15% of the firm's portfolio, or $15 million, out of Treasuries into mortgage pass-throughs, as he expects mortgages will outperform Treasuries with the prospect of stable or slightly higher interest rates. There is no trigger for this move besides the anticipation that, although the Federal Reserve may not tighten this year, the recovery should cause long rates to move up relative to short rates, hence shaping the curve in a more positive slope, he says. As a result, mortgage products should perform well due to their negative convexity and offer additional yield pick-up, he says.
June 02, 2002