While interpreting violent market movements can potentially be illuminating, many experienced finance practitioners shy away from this exercise, having recognized the difficulty of the task. At the same time, the majority of them appear to have accepted the premise that supply-and-demand dislocations have emerged as increasingly influential forces driving the fixed income markets. Their impact on interest rates, credit spreads, and implied as well as realized volatilities rivals that of geopolitical events, economic fundamentals, and credit crises. Paradoxically, the adoption of similar risk management practices by a large proportion of the financial system has become an extremely potent technical factor that may exacerbate market volatility and result in financial losses. One cannot help but wonder whether the creation of the field of risk management, directed toward protecting institutions from financial losses and decreasing the overall volatility, has at times become a self-defeating prophesy. Obviously, the realization of risk management's potential to affect market behavior, particularly as it applies to dynamic hedging strategies, is not new.
October 06, 2003