LatAm Bonds

Though Ecuador’s curve initially sold off on the sovereign’s request to push back debt payments until August, most analysts and investors expect the cash-squeezed country’s bondholders to offer the government flexibility in its time of need — mostly in an effort to avoid something far worse.

Banco Santander Mexico is hoping to become the first Latin American company to issue internationally in six weeks on Tuesday after speaking to investors on Monday about a potential senior unsecured trade.

With emerging markets across the globe facing an overwhelming liquidity squeeze, the IMF said on Thursday that it would “look for solutions that can unlock critical financing” in countries where the unsustainability of debt prevented the fund from lending, potentially increasing funding options for the most stressed of countries.

Argentina’s move to suspend domestic law bond payments for the rest of the year encouraged holders of its foreign law debt, some of who are beginning to spy value in the battered curve.

Though Ecuador was already late on debt payments and bondholders were already expecting to be asked to agree to delay coupons, the cash-squeezed sovereign’s bond curve sold off sharply after the government launched a consent solicitation to that end on Thursday afternoon.

Mexican petrochemicals company Grupo Idesa is giving bondholders more time to participate in a distressed debt exchange, saying that the “current environment” had hindered the ability of the bonds’ "custodians" to tender.

Rating agencies have continued their policy of taking swift action on Latin American governments as Standard & Poor’s removed its positive outlook from Brazil, the region’s largest economy, citing political opposition to President Jair Bolsonaro as a key reason.

For now, at least, Argentina appears to be asking its domestic bondholders to take the brunt of the government’s efforts to ease cashflow worries amid the Covid-19 crisis, providing upward momentum to foreign law debt prices.

As investors single out Mexico’s response to Covid-19 as one of the least convincing in Latin America, Fitch threw government-owned oil company Pemex and its $80bn of bonds deeper into sub-investment grade territory on Friday.

Owners of Ecuador debt are expecting the country’s legal system to rule on whether Rafael Correa, former president and one-time bond market foe, can participate in next year’s elections. As they plan for the South American nation’s expected restructuring, some analysts spy upside to latest secondary prices.

EM bond bankers were feeling relieved after a better day for global markets on Thursday, as they said some of the asset class’s best issuers were lining up deals hoping to clinch much-needed funding.

As the initial government-imposed deadline for Argentina’s mammoth debt restructuring sailed by without a concrete offer to creditors having been put on the table, some analysts are worried that a hard default may be inevitable.